With Mathieu van der Poel’s participation in Namur, cyclo-cross already received an initial popularity boost last Sunday, but when the world champion goes head-to-head with Wout van Aert this weekend in the cross races of Antwerp (Saturday) and Hofstade (Monday), the sport will truly explode. The only question is: can we expect a real duel? Here’s what the numbers say.
Anyone who follows cyclo-cross a bit can, based on their own feeling, state that Van der Poel has clearly held the upper hand in recent years. The tally of world titles stands at 7 to 3, partly because Van Aert did not start in all the major championships. Both riders have had their periods of dominance throughout their careers, yet it is only in the last two seasons that Van der Poel has truly been unbeatable.
To substantiate that statement, we look back at the results from the last five cyclo-cross seasons. The Corona winter of 2020-2021 was a season of mixed fortunes for Van der Poel: especially on the tougher courses, things sometimes went wrong. In Gavere, he had to let Tom Pidcock pull away uphill; in Overijse, after a flat tire, it was Van Aert who gained the upper hand. Very often, it was bad luck that caused Van der Poel’s defeats, such as in Herentals, where he had to surrender a lead of more than a minute.
But on the running course of Dendermonde, Van Aert delivered a masterclass with a huge margin, albeit on an atypical circuit. Van der Poel did put the finishing touches on at the World Championships in Ostend, but with a 6-3 score, it was a fairly balanced winter.
Sometimes Van Aert could win after Van der Poel’s bad luck - photo: Fotopersburo Cor Vos
It was also the period when, precisely on those tougher courses, back issues troubled the seven-time world champion. That became painfully clear a year later when he again had to relinquish victory in Dendermonde and even abandon in Zolder. Both on the road and in the field, that back became the Achilles heel of the Schilde resident, who promptly canceled the rest of his winter season to prevent further damage. In principle, the path to the world title was open for Van Aert, but since the rainbow jersey was contested that season in Fayetteville, USA, he did not make the overseas trip, much to Pidcock’s delight.
The following winter, Van der Poel also came out of that particular Worlds in Australia not feeling his best after his road campaign. This caused the level of the world champion and his Belgian rival to suddenly become very close. Ultimately, that winter ended 6-5 in favor of Van Aert, who early in the season secured thrilling wins in Heusden-Zolder, Diegem, and Loenhout. He dominated Koksijde and Zonhoven with a large margin, emerging as the winner of the Christmas period.
After a training camp and a two-week break, Van der Poel returned to competition more dominantly, and this time he was the one to out-sprint Van Aert in Benidorm. At the World Championships in Hoogerheide, the two quickly realized they could not shake each other off, and with over 50,000 spectators, they stopped trying in the latter part of the race. The fans got the anticipated duel, but with an early sprint move Van der Poel claimed his next world title on home soil.
It was a mental blow for Van Aert, who had kept pace all winter long. For Van der Poel, it was the much-needed boost and the definitive end to his back problems. You could see him enter the road season with more confidence, beginning with monuments wins in Milan-San Remo and Paris-Roubaix and the world title at an even higher level than before—a level Van Aert could not match in that discipline either.
Was the sprint in Hoogerheide a turning point? - photo: Fotopersburo Cor Vos
This became very clear in the 2023-2024 cross winter. Van der Poel started that winter immediately with a masterclass against Van Aert in Mol, which he would smoothly repeat in six of the next seven duels. Van Aert knew the situation and lost heavily from the start. The entire winter he couldn’t do anything against his rival, often losing by more than a minute and a half. Only when bad luck struck Van der Poel in the final lap at Benidorm was Van Aert ready to strike. He even decided not to race the World Championships, and a true one-on-one battle until the finish line never materialized.
Last winter, the number of duels was limited to three. Van Aert came out of the Vuelta with a knee injury and was not in his best shape anyway, and he also fell ill before the first confrontation in Mol. Ultimately, he held his own fairly well in Loenhout and Maasmechelen, but we did not see the very best Wout van Aert. Not even at the World Championships in Liévin, where he surprisingly did start after a last-minute decision but was never in contention after a terrible start.
Now that Van der Poel has won 12 of the most recent 13 confrontations, and only lost in Benidorm due to bad luck, there’s no doubt that the seven-time world champion is again the overwhelming favorite. His level has risen above Van Aert’s on all terrains: only on tough climbing courses and muddy circuits has Van Aert come close in the past, but on such terrain, the two won’t even meet this winter. In Antwerp, Hofstade, Mol, and Zonhoven, sand skills dominate; in Loenhout, conditions can vary widely depending on the rainfall.
Van Aert will likely not make many illusions to himself and seems more focused on the road. Their last duel was already at the Hoogerheide World Championships in early 2023. But the Visma | Lease a Bike rider now has the advantage of coming through the road season without any troubles, unlike Van der Poel, who sometimes struggled with the aftereffects of pneumonia. His build-up is also more focused on the World Championships. Will that bring the two closer or not? We will see next weekend.
