Finally, the real mountains are here! We had to wait a week and a half, but this Thursday we will truly see the true hierarchy on the climbs. After a memorable Pyrenees stage finishing on the equally legendary Hautacam, we now know how the standings look at the top of the general classification. Who will emerge victorious? Cyclingflash looks ahead!
We’ve had to wait a bit, but just past the halfway mark of this Tour de France we get a truly tough high mountain stage. For this, we head to the Pyrenees. At Hautacam, we will witness the first showdown between Tadej Pogačar, Jonas Vingegaard, and Remco Evenepoel. The last finish on this Pyrenean climb saw the first two play a leading role. Thanks to the escape of Wout van Aert, Vingegaard – in the yellow jersey – was able to put definitive distance between himself and Pogačar. Although Jumbo-Visma refused to celebrate with the whole team, it was clear to outsiders that the Dane had secured the first Tour win for the Dutch squad.
The riders already know it’s going to hurt when they see the name of the start town: Auch! From there, the stage initially appears rather easy. The first 105 kilometers contain hardly any noteworthy features. Early on, there are two options: either the peloton is content, and a breakaway of relatively lesser-known riders – who, with all respect, have little chance of winning the day – gets away quickly. Or it takes a long time for the escape to go because the riders sense a real opportunity. That will have to be revealed during the stage.
The stage covers a total of 181 kilometers and includes almost 4,000 meters of climbing. However, nearly all of that elevation is packed into the last sixty kilometers. After 105 kilometers, the roads start to rise substantially, and according to the route book, the foot of the Col du Soulor (11.8 km at 7.7%) comes at 121.5 kilometers. Where there’s Soulor, there’s usually Col d’Aubisque, but the organizers will bypass that famous climb this time. Instead, the route descends the other side of Soulor before heading to the Col des Bordères (3.1 km at 7.6%), which follows quickly.
The most iconic and toughest climb begins after a descent of just over 25 kilometers: Hautacam, where several chapters of Tour history have been written. Most of us will remember Bjarne Riis’s powerful attack here in 1996, but the 2001 edition was also decisive for the GC. That year, Lance Armstrong destroyed his eternal rival Jan Ullrich on Hautacam. And the penultimate time Hautacam was featured, Vincenzo Nibali won the stage. The fight for yellow was no longer close then.
The final climb to the Hautacam ski resort (13.6 km at 7.8%) is a true Pyrenees ascent with many irregular gradients and steep spikes. The first kilometers are relatively tame with gradients around 6%, but halfway up, the riders will truly suffer as the slope remains above 10% for many kilometers. We can expect fireworks among the GC contenders.
Bjarne Riis, just before his scorching attack on Hautacam – photo: Cor Vos
Based on the first eleven stages of the 2025 Tour de France, we can already draw several conclusions, including about the relative strength of the GC contenders. Yet, the battle for the overall victory has yet to truly begin. The patience of cycling fans has occasionally been tested, but Thursday is the day: the first real mountain stage of the 112th Tour de France!
And it promises to be a spectacular show, with the Col du Soulor, Col des Bordères, and final climb to Hautacam serving as key deciders. Where the GC riders could still hide a bit in the past week and a half, they will be fully exposed on Thursday. On the 13.6-kilometer final climb, defending champion Tadej Pogacar and his main challenger Jonas Vingegaard will truly test each other’s limits.
They will not only fight for time gains but also for the stage win. At least, that’s our expectation after looking at the route. The first roughly 120 kilometers to the foot of the Col du Soulor are not too challenging and fairly controllable for UAE Emirates XRG and Visma | Lease a Bike. Once at Soulor, there will be hardly any more moments to recover. The race will definitely not lull in the finale, which doesn’t favor (potential) breakaways.
The two men everyone’s watching: Pogacar and Vingegaard – photo: Cor Vos
After a tricky first week in the Tour, Pogacar appears well on track to defend his title, but the Slovenian cannot yet count his wins before they’ve happened. The sting in this Tour lies in the second and especially the third week, where Visma | Lease a Bike will continue its attrition tactics in the Pyrenees and Alps, hoping to wear down the world champion. Whether this attacking but energy-draining strategy will pay off remains to be seen, but the Dutch outfit shows no intention of giving up the fight.
"We’re going to do everything to make it as hard as possible for Tadej and his teammates. But he is incredibly strong, so we will have to dig deep into the bag of tricks," said Victor Campenaerts after the tenth stage through the Massif Central. While they’ve managed to get under the skin of the world champion and his team for now, they haven’t yet succeeded in splitting Pogacar off the back in the race."
"That’s very difficult,” Campenaerts admits. “If you want to drop the best rider in the world… But we’re really going to try everything to make that happen. And I’m sure that in Paris we will be able to say: 'We really gave it our all.'"
Will Jonas Vingegaard strike again on the way to Hautacam? – photo: Cor Vos
It’s up to the yellow-and-black squad to make the race as hard as possible, but for team leader Jonas Vingegaard, the challenge is to truly put his Slovenian nemesis to the sword. He has done just that before on the Alpine climb to Col de la Loze and the Pyrenean stage to… Hautacam! That day, Vingegaard benefited from an incredibly strong Wout van Aert, who launched a final acceleration to shake Pogacar off his wheel, enabling Vingegaard to solo impressively to both the stage and Tour win in the yellow jersey.
Will we see a similar scenario on Thursday’s ride to Hautacam? Visma | Lease a Bike has the squad for it, with Campenaerts, Van Aert, Tiesj Benoot, Sepp Kuss, Simon Yates, and Matteo Jorgenson supporting Vingegaard. The leader himself also brims with confidence, which became clear during the first really tough mountain stage before the first rest day. "Of course, at some point I have to make up time. But so far, I’ve managed to follow all his attacks, something I couldn’t do at the Dauphiné. That shows I’m at a higher level now."
Will Tadej Pogacar be back in yellow after Thursday’s stage? – photo: Cor Vos
The key to this stage may well lie with Visma | Lease a Bike, but based on the first eleven Tour days we assign the favorite role to Tadej Pogacar. The Slovenian has shown a very strong form so far and hasn’t faltered yet. While his team has suffered setbacks – João Almeida’s withdrawal remains a massive blow – Pogacar himself hasn’t encountered problems until the Wednesday stage to Toulouse: Pogacar crashed after contact with Tobias Halland Johannessen but seemed to escape serious injury. Will he still feel the effects of this fall on Thursday?
<span data-mce-type="bookmark" style="display: inline-block; width: 0px; overflow: hidden; line-height: 0;" class="mce_SELRES_start"></span>
In principle, the world champion can already think about defending his lead, as his margin over Vingegaard (Ben Healy doesn’t currently appear to be a threat) in the general classification is 1:17. Yet, we expect Pogacar to attack again on Thursday. It’s just the nature of the beast, but the UAE Emirates XRG leader – hungry for honor – will surely want sporting revenge on the slopes of Hautacam.
Three years ago, he suffered one of his most memorable (for Pogacar, not in a good way) defeats there. A super champion like Pogacar is always motivated but may perhaps tap even deeper into his strength reserves on Thursday. He will turn those feelings of revenge into extra fuel.
Will we see Remco Evenepoel attack again? – photo: Cor Vos
In the shadow of the ‘Big Two’ of the Tour, we are curious if Remco Evenepoel can keep pace now that the race finally hits the mountains. This seems a bit ambitious looking at his performance in this Tour so far. Take the stage to Le Mont-Dore on Monday. On the final climb, Evenepoel unleashed his demons but was quickly countered by Pogacar (and with Vingegaard on his wheel), costing him additional seconds at the finish. This definitely shows the hierarchy on climbs.
Still, Evenepoel is not one to give up easily. He will keep trying, and who knows, on Thursday he might benefit from a bad day by Pogacar and/or Vingegaard, or a lapse in concentration from the two giants. In the Le Mont-Dore stage, we also saw that Evenepoel initially got some space after his attack, suggesting that Pogacar and Vingegaard focus mainly on each other and don’t yet see the double Olympic champion as a threat. That could come back to haunt them.
Florian Lipowitz (right) is a very dangerous outsider – photo: Cor Vos
In a battle among the GC contenders – whether for the stage win or not – our main focus is naturally on Pogacar and Vingegaard, and to a lesser extent Evenepoel, but there are also other contenders. We think of Felix Gall (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale) and Florian Lipowitz (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe). Both riders are slightly further up the general classification and are strong climbers.
The Austrian and German are unlikely to threaten the yellow jersey, which might give them some freedom on the way to Hautacam. That could be enough to snatch the stage win from the top favorites. Oscar Onley (Picnic PostNL), Tobias Halland Johannessen (Uno-X Mobility), Enric Mas (Movistar), and Primoz Roglic (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe) find themselves in a similar position, which could lead to something exciting.
For French Tour hope Kévin Vauquelin (Arkéa-B&B Hotels), Carlos Rodríguez (INEOS Grenadiers), and Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek), the focus will likely be on limiting losses, though it’s always unpredictable how a mountain stage will play out. Ben Healy aims to hold the yellow jersey, which seems almost impossible, but could the Irishman surpass himself?
Will Thymen Arensman finally cross the line as a winner? – photo: Cor Vos
We expect the GC contenders to battle for the stage victory in this first Pyrenees stage, but maybe a strong breakaway can hold off the likes of Pogacar and Vingegaard. The name to watch is Thymen Arensman. The Dutchman is not focused on the GC in his first Tour but will have the freedom to attack in the coming stages. In the opening week, the INEOS Grenadiers rider didn’t get many chances, but he made a big impression in the stage to Le Mont-Dore.
Arensman went for his first Tour stage win in the Massif Central but had to narrowly accept second place behind Giro winner Simon Yates after a nail-biting finish. No shame, especially given that Arensman excels on longer climbs. Thursday’s stage suits him even better, so we definitely expect a starring role from him.
The 25-year-old will have to watch out for Einer Rubio (Movistar), Ben O’Connor, Mauro Schmid (Jayco AlUla), Santiago Buitrago (Bahrain Victorious), Sergio Higuita, Harold Tejada (XDS Astana), Michael Woods (Israel-Premier Tech), Michael Storer (Tudor Pro Cycling), Jordan Jegat (TotalEnergies), and King of the Mountains contender Lenny Martinez (Bahrain Victorious).
The riders can once again expect a sun-drenched day. In the start town Auch, temperatures will reach around 27°C, rising to 30°C on the approach to the Col du Soulor. Hautacam will be much more pleasant, with about 20°C. It will remain dry all day, and the light wind won’t have any significant impact.
The twelfth stage will be broadcast live from start to finish on Eurosport 1 and via HBO Max. NOS and Sporza also hold the broadcasting rights for the Tour de France and will show the race live. For exact broadcast times, you can always check our Cycling on TV guide.
Auch) Hautacam)Tour de France| Rank | Rider | Time | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | - | 41:01:13 | |
| 2 | - | + 29 | |
| 3 | - | + 01:29 | |
| 4 | - | + 01:46 | |
| 5 | - | + 02:06 | |
| 6 | - | + 02:26 | |
| 7 | - | + 03:24 | |
| 8 | - | + 03:34 | |
| 9 | - | + 03:41 | |
| 10 | - | + 05:03 |
