There are three of them: the men who will draw the most attention in Antwerp during the upcoming cyclocross weekend. The ruler (Mathieu van der Poel), the young challenger (Thibau Nys), and the question mark (Wout van Aert) all want to dominate these first clashes between the greats, but how should we assess the balance of power? We ask experts and former world champions Paul Herygers and Erwin Vervecken.
Although it was close at his first cross of the winter – Sunday in Namur – the statistics do not bode well for the competition. In the previous two seasons, Van der Poel lost only due to bad luck. Still, both saw a vulnerable Van der Poel in Namur. "He still made some technical mistakes and we certainly did not see the best Van der Poel," says Vervecken. "He got to the front fairly quickly but then got stuck there. That says something. He had no surplus energy; otherwise, he would have raced more aggressively."
Herygers: "He does all of that on a solid foundation to say the least. He definitely didn’t make it easy for himself by starting exactly in Namur. That’s no gift. But maybe it was important that Mathieu proved there that he can also race ‘like a normal rider.’ He is programmed to ride hard and sometimes struggles to hold back. But he can also control the race when some tactical thinking is involved. Very important."
What will it look like in Antwerp? "I fear you’ll have to get up very early to see him in the front. It won’t even last half a race. I don’t want to be negative about the competition, but prepare for the worst," says the Sporza commentator. "Everyone hopes he can be caught now, but on a course tailor-made for him like Antwerp, where he can’t lose himself, he won’t hold back. In principle, his focus is only on the World Championships, but I’m not naive: he wants to win every race, and for the rest it will be a fight. On circuits like that, I think he will be 100 percent."
Van der Poel himself has indicated his build-up is more World Championship focused and that he wants to peak a bit later. "That makes those first races very important for the competition," Vervecken adds. "Whoever beats Mathieu van der Poel almost makes history. Also because his stature is so big. When you saw him ride through Namur, the crowd went wild wherever he went. It was like Michael Jackson coming on stage for his first song at a concert."
Nys gave it a go in Namur – photo: Fotopersburo Cor Vos
Although he couldn’t finish the job, Thibau Nys had every reason to leave Namur with his head held high. "How long has it been since we’ve seen someone duel so fiercely with Mathieu in cyclocross, excluding Wout van Aert?" asks Vervecken. "I think about three years ago when it comes to Tom Pidcock. And the rest, even before COVID. I don’t know if he could have beaten Mathieu, but this gives him options. What he did is very impressive."
Herygers adds: "I’ve seen enough. He has nothing left to prove to me. It was certainly a golden opportunity, but I think it would have been a 50/50 battle for the win. He’s doing very well, and I even dare to think he will win more titles than his father one day. But let’s not expect too much in the coming weeks."
As father Nys said: Namur is not Antwerp. Will the young European champion find it much harder there to repeat his performance? "I think after next weekend we might speak a little less highly of Nys," warns Herygers. "And I don’t mean that negatively. He has made progress, but he’s not there yet. His time will come and the future looks bright, but right now he mainly has to be careful not to burn his fingers on Mathieu. If he doesn’t overdo it now, he can challenge Van der Poel within three years. For now, on his own terrain like Namur, he can already show flashes."
Vervecken fully agrees. "If you look at how much he has grown just by finishing one Tour de France, that’s promising. He has gained a lot more ‘body’ and chooses his races carefully. That’s a big difference from a year ago when he was more inconsistent. If he can maintain that progression, it will be rewarded sooner or later."
From the clash in Antwerp until the Belgian Championships in Beringen, three-time world champion Wout van Aert will also be active in cyclocross. He will face Van der Poel eight times. "I think he has scheduled his season smartly," opens Herygers. "Draw a 60-kilometer radius around his home and you’ll see all the cyclocross races fall within. He has organized that very well. Everyone knows what he’s aiming for."
Where does cyclocrosser Wout van Aert stand? – photo: Fotopersburo Cor Vos
Herygers means the classic spring season, which takes priority for Van Aert and Visma | Lease a Bike. For that reason, he probably won’t race the World Championships. "Don’t think for a moment that Wout is losing sleep over that first confrontation with Mathieu. He’s not tossing and turning in bed. Every decision is, even more than with Mathieu, carefully weighed. But we expect him to be ready. To race at this level in cyclocross, you need a solid base. He’s had time to do what he wanted and relax, but he certainly hasn’t only done easy rides against sportive cyclists. He must have trained quite hard at the right moments."
But is that enough to compete at the front right away? Vervecken: "In recent years, it’s typical for Wout to need two to three races to get into form. It won’t be different now. He has a big engine and likes a tough cross, so he’ll likely be back on the podium right away. I hope he finishes as close to the front as possible, but you can’t expect him to beat Van der Poel."
Both see an additional pitfall in the sandy Antwerp course, despite the organizer’s adjustments. "It’s never the easiest race to start from the back," says Herygers. "You always have to fight, and that can go wrong. At the World Championships you saw that everything has to fall into place perfectly to be at the front from the start. It’s no different here. I don’t immediately see a duel in Antwerp, but we shouldn’t lose hope. That will happen later. Maybe he’ll finish closer to Thibau now."
Vervecken: "Actually, the hill race in Namur would have been a better start in that regard. But because of his training camp with Visma | Lease a Bike, that was probably not possible. Antwerp does not have a simple start; that will be better on Monday in Hofstade. There it’s wide and spacious for passing, and there’s also a long run-up. Dendermonde is totally his cross, and Mathieu won’t ride there. That will be the first really big opportunity again, and then he’s set for Loenhout, Mol, and Zonhoven."
