Are we witnessing a dream duel between Evenepoel and Del Toro on the 'new' UAE climb?
The individual time trial has already caused significant differences in the general classification, but Wednesday will really separate the contenders from the rest. The riders will finish on the slopes of a new and daunting climb. WielerFlits looks ahead!
Route
For pure climbers, it was crucial to limit the damage as much as possible in the flat time trial, to strike back the following day. The finish of the third stage lies on Jebel Mobrah, a newcomer in the UAE Tour. The climb is shorter than the well-known Jebel Jais (20 km at 5%), which has been removed from the race, but significantly steeper. A solid thirteen kilometers must be climbed at a roughly eight percent average gradient.
And that average is somewhat distorted by a slightly easier start and a short descent halfway through. However, the last seven kilometers are monstrous. They average a brutal twelve percent gradient, with sections ramping up to as much as 17%. That will hurt. One consolation for the riders: until this Emirati Angliru, the stage is almost completely flat.
Classifications
Favorites
Remco Evenepoel did what he had to do on Tuesday: win the individual time trial and gain time on all his rivals for the overall victory. That was no surprise, as Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe’s star signing has started his season brilliantly. After ten race days, he already has seven wins. Will number eight follow on Wednesday? It’s possible, but far from guaranteed. Jebel Mobrah – both long and incredibly steep – doesn’t seem tailor-made for the Belgian.
However, the Belgian has shown hardly any signs of weakness this season. It’s quite likely he has also improved as a climber over the past winter. Although the climbs in Mallorca and Valencia were different terrain from Jebel Mobrah, his performances there were promising.
Also promising was the sprint by Isaac Del Toro in the opening stage. The Mexican rider from UAE Emirates XRG immediately showed on the punchy finish that he had a strong winter behind him. His time trial on Tuesday was less convincing, but Wednesday he’ll get a chance to set things straight. The steep Jebel Mobrah could suit him better than it does Evenepoel. On paper, the two are evenly matched, but we give Del Toro a slight edge.
So, mainly watch out for Del Toro and Evenepoel, but on such a special finish – and at this stage of the season – nothing is certain. Perhaps more climbers will get involved in the battle for the stage win. We have in mind riders like Felix Gall. The Austrian was fifth in last year’s Tour and is known for attacking on climbs. Also, Adam Yates should be able to go far, but will he sacrifice himself for Del Toro?
We certainly also mark the name Michael Storer. The Australian won a mountain stage last year in Paris-Nice, the Memorial Marco Pantani, and the overall classification at the Tour of the Alps. Moreover, he finished third in the Giro di Lombardia, behind only Evenepoel and the unbeatable Tadej Pogacar. Tobias Halland Johannessen is meanwhile the sixth-place finisher of the 2025 Tour de France.
From a Belgian perspective, also keep an eye on Ilan Van Wilder and Lennert Van Eetvelt. The latter started the year with (yet again) bad luck – he crashed hard in the Santos Tour Down Under – but he showed well in the UAE Tour opening stage with an eighth place. So he seems fine. Dutch hopes rest on Wilco Kelderman, although Visma | Lease a Bike will mainly hope for a breakthrough from Ben Tulett.
Finally, riders like Antonio Tiberi (Bahrain Victorious), Ben O'Connor, Luke Plapp (Jayco AlUla), Eddie Dunbar (Pinarello-Q36.5), David Gaudu (Groupama FDJ-United), and Derek Gee-West (Lidl-Trek) could also surprise.
Weather and TV
Wednesday will be warm and clear in the Emirates. Temperatures will rise to about thirty degrees Celsius in the afternoon, although it will naturally be somewhat cooler higher up on Jebel Mobrah. The wind (4 Beaufort) will come from the north.
