Win chance
| 1 | 15.86% | |
| 2 | 9.75% | |
| 3 | 8.73% | |
| 4 | 7.17% | |
| 5 | 3.51% | |
| 6 | 2.95% | |
| 7 | 2.77% | |
| 8 | 2.69% | |
| 9 | 2.60% | |
| 10 | 2.53% |
Model-based estimate from rider ratings and the stage profile.
| Date | Thursday 11 August |
| Start |  Plateau d'Hauteville |
| Finish | Lélex |
| Distance | 131.0 km |
Win chance
| 1 | 15.86% | |
| 2 | 9.75% | |
| 3 | 8.73% | |
| 4 | 7.17% | |
| 5 | 3.51% | |
| 6 | 2.95% | |
| 7 | 2.77% | |
| 8 | 2.69% | |
| 9 | 2.60% | |
| 10 | 2.53% |
Model-based estimate from rider ratings and the stage profile.