Erik Breukink predicts Thymen Arensman will reach Giro podium, favors only Vingegaard and Pellizzari more

Thymen Arensman seems to glide effortlessly through the first week of the 2026 Giro d’Italia. That is a victory in itself, as the 26-year-old Dutchman has struggled more than once during the opening stages of a grand tour in the past. The enthusiasm around the co-leader of Netcompany INEOS is growing. “Arensman is the biggest contender for the final podium spot,” says Erik Breukink in an interview with Wielerflits. He himself stood on the Giro podium in 1987 and 1988.

Although the Dutchman dropped from fifth to tenth place in the general classification on Wednesday, apart from Egan Bernal – Arensman’s teammate – he is currently the best-placed GC rider. Admittedly, former pink jersey wearer Giulio Ciccone is not included in that consideration. Arensman has never started a grand tour as well as this. “I am calm and in control. I had a good preparation. Not too much and not too little. Every day I try to do the right things all over again. I take good care of myself. I take all experiences with me and, as I grow older, I better understand what works for me,” he told the Algemeen Dagblad.

Confidence and calm
The statistics above look very good. Especially knowing that the third week has always been Arensman’s big weapon. Breukink agrees. “From Blockhaus up to the third rest day, he needs to make sure he does not lose much time anywhere and stays healthy. If he can stay close to the men at the top of the GC, then there is definitely potential in the final week. At Blockhaus, Thymen needs to show that he is strong uphill. That will only increase his team’s confidence in him. The 2025 Tour de France also did something for Arensman. Those two stage wins have naturally given him a lot of confidence.”

Arensman’s experience over the years has also played a role. Besides the Tour, he has twice finished sixth in the Giro and fifth in the Vuelta a España. “The last few years have had some setbacks. But Arensman needed those to realize he should not let the surroundings unsettle him. That seems to be going well now since he has come through the first days very well. As a grand tour rider, you have to live day by day and not look too far ahead. If you slip up, it can be fatal. But he seems to have that well under control now. He’s reaching an age where he will discover the best version of himself.”

Keeping Bernal in the GC
At Netcompany INEOS, Arensman shares the leadership role with Egan Bernal, former winner of the Tour and Giro. Before this race, the Dutchman emphasized this again, essentially saying he does not want to take the leadership role away from him. However, the Colombian champion faced difficulties on the fourth stage, the day after the rest day, despite his good form leading up to this Giro. “Maybe that was already a signal. After Blockhaus, we will know more. That is a fair climb, and you see exactly where everyone stands,” Breukink explains. “Maybe Bernal will actually do very well there. But even that does not necessarily mean anything. Netcompany INEOS will only choose in the final week.”

According to Breukink, that could just as well be Arensman. Until then, he mainly hopes Bernal remains high in the GC for his compatriot’s sake. “I think Thymen finds it reassuring that another rider on the team is also aiming for the overall classification. That way, they can share the pressure. A Bernal who stays high in the GC is only to Arensman’s advantage. As long as they don’t have the pink jersey in the team, there’s no problem. And I think it was agreed that one does not have to sacrifice himself for the other. Unless one is clearly much better. But that usually only happens in week three.”

Podium contender
In the weekend after Blockhaus and also during the second week—with the long time trial that suits Arensman well among other stages—there are several tricky stages. “I am confident. He will not so much need to watch Jonas Vingegaard, but rather the rest. The Dane is the best climber and the top favorite for the overall victory. I also rate Giulio Pellizzari highly, but he is still very young. He still has to prove himself a bit. But behind him, the name Thymen Arensman quickly comes up. I definitely see him as a contender for the final podium in Rome. At the same time, the group with a chance for that is quite large.”

A good platform at Blockhaus for Arensman would be not losing too much time, especially to Pellizzari, Breukink believes. “I am putting Vingegaard a bit aside because he might already make a big move on Friday. Thymen mainly depends on Pellizzari. If he is not too far behind him and close to the other GC riders, he can definitely continue from there. In this field, he can race for the podium. And who knows, maybe even more. Vingegaard is not guaranteed to come through unscathed. Normally, there’s little to do to him because he impresses me this year. But besides him, there is no one in this Giro who Arensman cannot handle. He has his age and momentum on his side for something special.

In the latest WielerFlits Podcast, we also discuss Thymen Arensman’s chances starting from minute 13:30