The final week of this Tour de France 2025 starts right away with a mountain stage to a legendary climb in the history of the Tour de France. In the first 140 kilometers, the riders can warm up their legs after the rest day, but then the next challenge begins. A finish on the Bare Mountain, which we all know well: Mont Ventoux. Cyclingflash.com looks ahead!
The Tour caravan sets up camp on the second rest day along the Mediterranean coast, in Montpellier to be exact. The sixteenth stage also starts there the day after the rest day. In the city – which has over 300,000 inhabitants – there are many sights to see. For instance, the University of Montpellier is one of the oldest in Europe. It existed in 1289 and possibly even earlier, though this cannot be confirmed with certainty. Today it accommodates over 55,000 students. This makes the city center always lively; street theater and musicians are typical in the historic downtown. It is also the birthplace of Rémi Gaillard. Videos by the famous comedian have been viewed hundreds of millions of times on YouTube.
The city also breathes sport. Football club Montpellier HSC surprisingly won the national championship for the first time in 2012, thanks to star player Olivier Giroud. Montpellier was also one of the ten host cities during the 1998 FIFA World Cup, where the round of 16 match between Germany and Mexico was played in Stade de la Mosson. Olivier Bierhoff scored – unsurprisingly – the winning goal three minutes before the final whistle. The Tour also loves coming to Montpellier. The coastal city has hosted a stage 32 times already. The last time was in 2016, a memorable finish. In the finale, the wind invited Peter Sagan and Maciej Bodnar for an attack, answered by Geraint Thomas and yellow jersey wearer Chris Froome. Sagan won, Froome took six seconds’ advantage.
On paper, the sixteenth stage looks relatively straightforward: a long approach with a finish on Mont Ventoux. However, the name of this iconic climb also hides the danger of this stage. In the neighboring Occitanie region, vent means wind. Moreover, the name Ventoux is said to be dedicated to the Celtic wind god Vintour. Starting from the Mediterranean, riders must be wary of echelons. The Tour organization sends the riders through the outskirts north of the cities Montpellier, Nîmes, and Avignon. On the open roads there, the wind can blow freely. We will have to see if the wind direction and strength are favorable.
Eventually, Mont Ventoux awaits, a mythical climb in the Tour. Yet this will be only the eleventh time in the rich Tour history we finish atop the Bald Mountain or the Giant of Provence. The past winners are: Charly Gaul (1958), Raymond Poulidor (1965), Eddy Merckx (1970), Bernard Thévenet (1972), Jean-François Bernard (1987), Marco Pantani (2000), Richard Virenque (2002), Juan Manuel Garate (2009), Chris Froome (2013), and Thomas De Gendt (2016). Incidentally, due to strong winds in 2016, the race did not go all the way to the summit; the finish was at Chalet Reynard: the stage where yellow jersey Froome ran up in all the chaos.
Besides the ten previous summit finishes, Ventoux has featured seven other times in the route. The most recent was in 2021, when it was climbed twice in one stage. That day, Wout van Aert was the best breakaway rider. As four years ago, they now tackle the climb from its hardest side. For the enthusiasts among us: that is the southern side from Bedoin. This makes the Mont Ventoux this year 19.5 kilometers long with an average gradient of 7.9%. Especially the final section after emerging from the forest is brutal. The riders come out into a kind of lunar landscape (which gives Ventoux its nickname Bare Mountain), where the wind again is a decisive factor.
For every mountain stage in this Tour de France, we must ask ourselves: to Pogacar or not to Pogacar? The yellow jersey holder has all the strings in hand in this Tour de France and virtually single-handedly decides whether a breakaway group gets space.
Pogacar again? – photo: Cor Vos
That is to say: his UAE Emirates XRG teammate Tim Wellens revealed earlier this week that Tadej Pogačar often lets his teammates decide whether they want to control the stage. After all, they have to do the dirty work, so they are allowed to judge if they are strong enough to keep the breakaway in check for their Slovenian leader.
With the flat approach, the stage to Mont Ventoux should be relatively easy to control. Someone like Nils Politt could take on the whole approach alone – Tim Declercq style – without Pogacar having to sacrifice all his climbing domestiques. If it were a challenging mountain stage, the team might give a group some leeway, but this looks to be a golden opportunity that Pogacar will not want to miss. Especially since the GC leader likes to celebrate on legendary finishes, and now that Tim Wellens has his stage win in the bag, he will gladly make that sacrifice.
In any case: if this really turns into a battle among the GC contenders, the expectation is that no one will be able to match Pogacar. Even in stages he doesn’t necessarily want to win, such as the stage to Luchon-Superbagnères, he toys with the competition and essentially decides where and when he attacks. We expect to see the same here. If his teammates can control the stage, the yellow jersey is 99% certain to finish it off. Though he did complain about a sore throat and a blocked nose before the rest day.
What can Vingegaard still do? – photo: Cor Vos
Still, Jonas Vingegaard deserves praise for his fighting spirit. The leader of Visma | Lease a Bike is the only one who keeps trying to follow the Slovenian all-rounder and is also the rider who comes closest to Pogacar. According to himself, Vingegaard is delivering the best values of his career in this Tour, but the same applies to Pogacar.
Yet, the Yellow Bees are constantly repeating they have not given up on winning the Tour yet. Grischa Niermann and co remain combative, and should Pogacar get sick or crash, they will be first in line to take the throne. Even if the Slovenian’s form dips a bit towards the end, the Visma riders will be the first to strike.
Not only with their leader Vingegaard himself: in depth, Richard Plugge arguably has the strongest climbing squad. Their focus is more than ever on stage wins. In the previous Ventoux stage, that went to Wout van Aert, but he doesn’t have the legs he had then. Men like Sepp Kuss and Simon Yates – who already has a stage in the bag – seem more likely to attack to put pressure on the UAE riders. Matteo Jorgenson is still a bit too close to get much freedom, though he tries regularly. Visma will never give up, that’s clear.
Florian Lipowitz is the third best rider in the race – photo: Cor Vos
Florian Lipowitz probably won’t win this stage – unless Pogacar and Vingegaard start watching each other – but he is the third-best climber in the race. Especially now that Remco Evenepoel has dropped out, he seems the top candidate for the bronze. Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe aren’t sure if Lipowitz can handle the full three weeks yet, so they keep Primož Roglič in reserve. If they want to control the stage, they will have to play it tactically.
Lipowitz does face some competition from the young Oscar Onley, who has made huge progress since his stage win and podium in the Tour de Suisse. He’s not often on camera, but his fourth place in the provisional GC is impressive. The 22-year-old Scotsman of Picnic PostNL is facing his first grand tour with GC ambitions, so he is still searching a bit but is exceeding expectations.
Breakaway riders will have to be exceptional to beat UAE Emirates XRG. However, we dare to not rule out a new stage win for Thymen Arensman. The young INEOS Grenadiers rider received much praise, even from Pogacar himself, after his impressive attack towards Luchon-Superbagnères. It earned him the biggest victory of his early career, something he would love to repeat.
Arensman already has his stage in the bag – photo: Cor Vos
Of course, he will not be the only one trying. Even if UAE Emirates XRG wants to keep control, teams don’t necessarily have to accept that. Riders like Lenny Martinez (Bahrain Victorious), Ben O'Connor (Jayco AlUla), Carlos Rodriguez (INEOS Grenadiers), Einer Rubio (Movistar), Sergio Higuita (XDS Astana), Bruno Armirail (Decathlon AG2R), Ben Healy (EF Education EasyPost), Santiago Buitrago (Bahrain Victorious), or Michael Woods (Israel-Premier Tech) might try their luck.
It won’t be very cold on Mont Ventoux. The wind can sometimes rage there, but that is not the case for this edition. According to Weeronline, temperatures can rise up to 18 degrees Celsius, with wind blowing at a maximum of 2 Beaufort from the northwest. It will also be quite sunny on the Ventoux.
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