Stage eleven of the Tour de France can unfold in various ways. The race continues the day after the first rest day with an inviting stage for attackers. The early breakaway has a chance of success, puncheurs can make a difference from the peloton in the finale, or the strong sprinters might survive. What will we witness? Cyclingflash takes a look ahead!
The day after the rest day features a stage starting and finishing in Toulouse. Although the route book describes it as a flat stage, two tough climbs in the last fifteen kilometers tempt attackers. The ASO has once again found a finish that should lure riders like Mathieu van der Poel and Wout van Aert out of their shells.
Stage eleven of the 2025 Tour de France is almost a warm-up for the intensity that follows later in the week. The stage is only 154 kilometers long, and secretly there will be riders treating it like a second rest day. The course remains mostly flat on Wednesday, allowing riders to conserve energy and still finish comfortably on time. But from Corronsac onwards, the final hour features constant twists, turns, and rolling terrain. Mechanical issues at this point could be disastrous.
Along the Garonne River, the peloton takes a loop before entering the center of the historic French city. The riders will tackle the Côte de Vieille-Toulouse (1.5 kilometers at 6.7%) and the Montée Pech David (900 meters at 9.1%). The latter climb is just eight kilometers from the finish in Toulouse’s city center. The finish line is on Boulevard Lascrosses, where the Tour also ended in 2019: back then Caleb Ewan won a photo finish against Dylan Groenewegen. Now, it remains to be seen whether we’ll get a genuine bunch sprint.
The breakaway scenario seemed most likely for stage eleven, but since Ben Healy took the yellow jersey in stage ten, the dynamics have shifted. It’s highly probable that EF Education-EasyPost will control the race to keep the Irishman in yellow for at least another day. This opens opportunities for puncheurs and strong sprinters. For riders like Jonathan Milan and Tim Merlier, however, the finale may still be too demanding.
The clear favorite appears to be Mathieu van der Poel. The Alpecin-Deceuninck leader hasn’t spared himself in the opening part of the Tour, but after Tuesday’s rest day, he will undoubtedly be eager to attack again. The Montée Pech David should suit him well. Although very steep, the climb is short and should be manageable for Van der Poel. He can either break away with a small group or hang on in a reduced peloton. In both scenarios, he ranks among the top favorites.
Mathieu van der Poel - photo: Cor Vos
If we mention Van der Poel, we almost automatically mention Wout van Aert. The Visma | Lease a Bike Belgian hasn’t been at his peak this Tour yet, but we have already seen flashes of his class. For example, in Laval, where he sprinted to second place. Van Aert can certainly finish strongly in a sprint (without Milan and Merlier).
For Jonathan Milan, this stage may be too tough, but Lidl-Trek might still strike with Jasper Stuyven. The Belgian should handle this classic-style course well and then has the sprint to seal the deal.
Romain Grégoire has also been active at the front several times this Tour. Both in Boulogne-sur-Mer and Rouen, the young Groupama-FDJ rider finished in the top five, and this finale—with its steep final climb—should suit him. The French team can also count on riders like Anthony Turgis (TotalEnergies), Axel Laurance (INEOS Grenadiers), and of course Julian Alaphilippe (Tudor).
Wout van Aert - photo: Cor Vos
Keep an eye on riders like Jenno Berckmoes (Lotto), Mauro Schmid (Jayco AlUla), Iván García Cortina (Movistar), Marc Hirschi (Tudor), Simone Velasco, and Mike Teunissen (XDS Astana). EF Education-EasyPost will mainly focus on Ben Healy’s yellow jersey, but Vincenzo Albanese might cause a double threat in the finale. The Italian recently won a stage in the Tour de Suisse, proving himself as the fastest after a tough finale.
Intermarché-Wanty also has strong chances if Merlier and Milan are dropped and the finish comes from a small peloton. They have Biniam Girmay, who has twice finished sixth and once second this Tour. After his three stage wins last year, he will be aiming for at least one stage victory. If the Eritrean still wants to contend for the green jersey—currently third—he can make significant moves on the stage to Toulouse.
Biniam Girmay - photo: Cor Vos
Teams like Lotto and Picnic PostNL may also lend a hand in the finale. Lotto has a contender in Arnaud De Lie, and Picnic PostNL counts on Tobias Lund Andresen. De Lie started the race with some doubts but has already sprinted to fifth and third places. This challenging stage to Toulouse suits him even better on paper. Lund Andresen should also appreciate the tricky finale, having placed sixth earlier in Laval.
Alpecin-Deceuninck will primarily back Van der Poel, but if the sprint involves a slightly larger group, they also have Kaden Groves. The Australian climber is exceptional for a sprinter and, without Milan or Merlier to compete against, has the speed to finish it off. The same applies to Dutch champion Danny van Poppel. And if we get a sprint from an elite group, we always have to watch out for Tadej Pogacar!
Arnaud De Lie - photo: Cor Vos
Wednesday promises another warm day. In both the start and finish town of Toulouse, temperatures will rise to around 30 degrees Celsius in the afternoon. The sun will shine brightly with no precipitation expected. The wind (3 Beaufort) comes from the northwest.
The eleventh stage will be broadcast live from start to finish on Eurosport 1 and via HBO Max. NOS and Sporza also hold the broadcasting rights for the Tour de France and will provide live coverage. For exact broadcast times, check our Cycling TV guide.
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