The Vuelta a España 2025 is just around the corner! The third and final Grand Tour of the season starts this Saturday in Turin. With Jonas Vingegaard at the start of the Spanish stage race, an absolute top contender is in the line-up. Vingegaard is, quite logically, the top favorite, but it won’t be easy for the Dane. UAE Emirates XRG fields a star-studded squad, and there are other crafty challengers in the mix. WielerFlits looks ahead!
The Vuelta a España started last year with an individual time trial in Portugal. Brandon McNulty surprised favorites like Wout van Aert, Joshua Tarling, and Edoardo Affini there. A day later, McNulty had to relinquish his red jersey to Van Aert after the Belgian finished second in the first bunch sprint. Van Aert then won the sprint on day three, but on day four, the GC riders took the spotlight for the first time in the Vuelta.
Primoz Roglic won after Lennert Van Eetvelt celebrated prematurely, and the Slovenian became the new race leader. That leader's jersey changed hands after stage six to Ben O'Connor. The Australian got away in the break of the day and dropped everyone from that group. O’Connor won with nearly five minutes’ advantage over his breakaway companions, while the peloton followed over six (!) minutes behind. Thus, O’Connor suddenly took the lead with a 4 minute and 51-second lead over Roglic.
A huge lead for O’Connor, who had already shown in the past that he could ride a strong general classification. In the mountain stages that followed, O’Connor gradually lost time, but when entering the final week, he was still wearing the red leader’s jersey. On stage nineteen, O’Connor finally got the expected blow from Roglic. The Slovenian won solo on the Alto de Moncalvillo and comfortably took over the leader’s jersey from the exhausted Australian.
In the last two stages, Roglic secured his overall victory calmly. He won with a fairly comfortable margin over O’Connor, who accepted his podium place. The third spot went to home rider Enric Mas. Additionally, the seventh place of Florian Lipowitz in the top 10 stood out. That was the first notable result for the German in the final classification of a Grand Tour.
At the start of this season, it seemed like we would see a rematch of the Tour de France in the Vuelta: a duel between Tadej Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard. Both tenors announced that they would ride the last Grand Tour of the season. However, Pogacar reversed that decision at the end of July. The Slovenian came out of the Tour too tired and decided to focus on other goals.
Still, the Vuelta will showcase a thrilling battle. UAE Emirates XRG will have to do without Pogacar but still fields a very strong team. João Almeida and Juan Ayuso are the two leaders and can—at least in theory—form a powerful duo. Additionally, there are steady performers like Mikel Landa and Richard Carapaz. This Vuelta is truly a Grand Tour for pure climbers, so why wouldn’t riders like Felix Gall and Giulio Ciccone try to aim for the overall victory?
Jonas Vingegaard will begin his third Vuelta a España this Saturday. The Danish rider made his debut in the Vuelta in 2020, which was also his first Grand Tour in his career. Back then, he finished 46th in the general classification. Two years ago, Vingegaard gifted the Vuelta overall win to teammate Sepp Kuss after capturing the Tour de France title himself that year. The Dane finished second in that Vuelta, taking two stage wins.
Now, Vingegaard is again participating in the Vuelta. It’s the second time in his career he’s racing two Grand Tours in one season. In 2023, that didn’t seem to be a problem. Vingegaard won the Tour, allowing him to start the Vuelta without any pressure. This time, however, it is a “must” for Vingegaard. With Pogacar absent, his status compels him to win this Grand Tour, provided he finishes safely.
In the Tour, there was a clear gap between Pogacar and Vingegaard, but also between Vingegaard and the rest of the field. Even though Vingegaard was not himself on some days, he was still far stronger than the other GC contenders. That should give him confidence: Vingegaard is basically above the rest. His strong team—including Sepp Kuss and Matteo Jorgenson, who will also participate—speaks in his favor as well.
Vuelta a España final standing last year: Did not participate.
Best result in Vuelta a España: in 2023
João Almeida has never won a Grand Tour. In fact, he has never even stood on the podium in a Grand Tour. Yet the Portuguese rider has everything it takes to one day win a three-week stage race. Almeida can climb, survive in somewhat more classical stages, and is strong against the clock—a recipe for a successful GC rider.
In the Tour, Almeida was supposed to ease the pressure on Pogacar by staying high in the rankings himself, but that plan quickly fell apart. Almeida suffered a heavy crash and eventually had to abandon. Since then, the climber hasn’t raced and will make his comeback at the Vuelta itself.
So, it remains to be seen how good Almeida will be right away. The fact that his team is letting him start is basically a good sign. Almeida will have to perform well immediately, because stage two already features a summit finish, and stage five is the team time trial. If he wants to put pressure on Vingegaard, in other words, he’ll need to be at 100% from day one.
Vuelta a España final standing last year: Did not finish
Best result in Vuelta a España: Fourth in 2022
What applies to Almeida also applies to Juan Ayuso. The young Spaniard abandoned the Giro d’Italia after several days of not feeling himself. Then he raced no events for two months before making his comeback in the Clásica San Sebastián. There, he dropped very early and eventually finished 39th. Not a good sign.
The next day, Ayuso fared better in the Circuito de Getxo. He hid in the peloton all day but impressively won the sprint for second place ahead of Alex Aranburu. Ayuso showed signs of improvement, which is a relief for both him and UAE Emirates XRG.
2025 was supposed to be the year Ayuso would really challenge for an overall Grand Tour win. More than that, it was the plan. The Giro didn’t go well, so the Vuelta offers a new chance. One big problem: Ayuso and the team don’t seem quite aligned. The 21-year-old often struggles to work well with teammates, especially when sharing leadership responsibilities.
That will certainly be the case in the Vuelta; Ayuso is starting on equal footing with Almeida. Will the two get along? Or will UAE Emirates XRG, without Pogacar, again turn into a chaotic unit?
Vuelta a España final standing last year: Did not participate
Best result in Vuelta a España: in 2022
If the UAE Emirates XRG riders focus more on each other than on the competition, Richard Carapaz will be quick to seize any opportunity. On May 31, Carapaz suffered one of the biggest disappointments of his career, partly because he was too focused on his own rivalry with Isaac Del Toro in the chase of Simon Yates, allowing the Brit to claim the Giro victory.
Carapaz had to settle for third place. A blow for the Ecuadorian, who was on track for a new Grand Tour victory over three weeks. He will have another chance in the Vuelta, but the competition will be tougher this time.
The many tough mountain stages and summit finishes are a godsend for Carapaz. The former Olympic champion is also somewhat unpredictable, so anything can happen. Maybe he’ll approach Vingegaard’s level in some stages, but he might also be over two minutes behind after only five days.
Vuelta a España final standing last year: Fourth
Best result in Vuelta a España: in 2020
Mikel Landa is a rider you can count on. The Spaniard is already 35 but still in good shape. Ahead of this year’s Giro, for example, he was seventh in Tirreno-Adriatico and fourth in the Tour of Catalonia. However, the Giro ended very early for Landa, as he had to abandon on day one after a serious crash in the streets of Albania.
Earlier this month he made his comeback after a lengthy recovery. Landa was rather invisible, finishing a fairly anonymous eighteenth in the Vuelta a Burgos GC. But with experienced riders like Landa, that doesn’t say much. The Soudal Quick-Step rider knows what it takes to be in top form at the start of a Grand Tour.
Landa has ridden 23 (!) Grand Tours in his career. He participated in the Vuelta eight times, with a fifth place as his best result. Last year, he was there again, finishing eighth.
Vuelta a España final standing last year: Eighth
Best result in Vuelta a España: Fifth in 2023
Giulio Ciccone appears to be in the form of his life. The Giro was again a disappointment this year as he had to abandon before stage fifteen. After a long recovery period, he recently made a comeback in the Clásica San Sebastián—and what a comeback! Ciccone crushed the competition with a very clever move and soloed to victory in the picturesque streets of San Sebastián.
A strong performance from the Italian, who carried that form into the Vuelta a Burgos. There, he won the final stage with a finish at the historic Lagunas de Neila and finished fifth overall. Ciccone again demonstrated he’s one of the peloton’s best climbers.
Ciccone has never finished top 10 in a Grand Tour. Last year, he was eleventh in the Tour, but he has yet to go beyond that in a three-week stage race. Of course, he has won multiple stages. Since there are many summit finishes this year in the Vuelta and only one individual time trial—and Ciccone is in the form of his life—this might be the opportunity for him to break through as a true GC contender.
Vuelta a España final standing last year: Did not finish
Best result in Vuelta a España: Never finished
Felix Gall has been developing well in recent years. In 2023, he truly showed himself in a Grand Tour by winning a stage in the Tour de France. Gall also finished eighth in the final GC, immediately marking himself as a solid climber.
This year, the Austrian secured fifth place in the Tour de France. That demonstrated he has taken another step in his career. Time trialing remains a weakness, but luckily the Vuelta features only one individual time trial. Gall will hope to limit losses there, as well as in the team time trial.
If he manages that, Gall definitely has potential. Finishing fifth in the Tour, you’re ready for the podium in the Giro or the Vuelta. The field in this year’s Vuelta is very strong, but it’s not impossible. The 27-year-old also gained experience last year by riding two Grand Tours in one season, so that should not be a problem.
Vuelta a España final standing last year: 29th
Best result in Vuelta a España: 29th in 2024
Who would have thought that Egan Bernal would never again come close to the Grand Tour victories he scored in the Tour de France 2019 and Giro d’Italia 2021? Unfortunately, luck hasn’t been on his side lately. Fortunately, the Colombian climber is gradually getting back to himself. He showed this year in the Giro, where he finished seventh overall after three weeks.
We all know Bernal has what it takes. The real question is if his body can handle it. In the Vuelta a Burgos, Bernal showed he is in decent shape by finishing sixth overall. He also placed sixth in the stage to Lagunas de Neila. The INEOS Grenadiers leader is not a top favorite for this Vuelta, but maybe that shadow role works in his favor.
Vuelta a España final standing last year: Did not participate
Best result in Vuelta a España: Sixth in 2021
Antonio Tiberi is in very good form. The young Italian from Bahrain Victorious was not contesting victories in this year’s Giro d’Italia, but seems to be hitting peak shape just in time. In the Tour of Poland, he was very strong with four top-six finishes in seven days. That resulted in second place overall, half a minute behind Brandon McNulty.
The form is there. The question is whether the 24-year-old can hold it together over three weeks. He did well last year in the Giro, finishing fifth. With also a third place in Tirreno-Adriatico this year, the stars look quite favorable for Tiberi. But little suggests he will do better than his fifth place in the 2024 Giro.
Vuelta a España final standing last year: Did not finish
Best result in Vuelta a España: Eighteenth in 2023
The last star goes to a former overall winner. Sepp Kuss delivered a stunning win at the 2023 Vuelta. That was mainly a team effort by Visma Lease a Bike, but nonetheless. Kuss is often at his best in the final Grand Tour of the season. In the Tour, he did a lot of work in service of Vingegaard, but didn’t really convince. That was somewhat in line with the rest of his season.
Still, Kuss is the kind of rider you should never count out. He is simply one of the best climbers in the peloton, and that suits the Vuelta perfectly. Visma also has two other stars with Vingegaard and Matteo Jorgenson, so maybe Kuss can switch tactics. Getting into an early breakaway and suddenly jumping up in the GC—Déjà vu from 2023?
Vuelta a España final standing last year: Fourteenth
Best result in Vuelta a España: in 2023
We already mentioned him, but Matteo Jorgenson will also race the Vuelta. The American from Visma | Lease a Bike gets something of a second chance after the Tour de France, where he was not quite himself. He was never able to play the role expected from him. This brutally tough Vuelta also doesn't particularly suit him, which is a reason to exclude him from the star rankings.
Another notable name is Tom Pidcock. The Brit said just last week he has a clear goal for the Vuelta: “My time trial still needs a lot of improvement, but maybe I can go for a top ten,” he told De Telegraaf. “Reaching the podium would be amazing, but winning a Grand Tour is the hardest thing imaginable for me.” We think that might be too ambitious for Pidcock right now, but the talent is definitely there.
He’s lost the youth but has the experience. We’re talking about Damiano Caruso, the Italian warrior. Caruso recently won a stage in the Vuelta a Burgos and finished fifth in this year’s Giro. He could form an interesting tandem with Tiberi at Bahrain Victorious. David Gaudu and Guillaume Martin can do the same at Groupama-FDJ, Aleksandr Vlasov and Jai Hindley at Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe. However, those are two duos of a different level, at least for now.
Derek Gee finished fourth in the Giro this year but is excluded from the star rankings. The Canadian has surprised cycling fans multiple times, but this Vuelta is truly very tough. Ok, he climbed exceptionally well at the Giro, but still—the competition and the route here are more demanding. That makes Gee one of the most dangerous outsiders. The 28-year-old Israel-Premier Tech rider might surprise us.
Finally, we mention several outsiders for a nice place in the top ranks. Think of pure climbers like Eddie Dunbar (Jayco AlUla) and Lorenzo Fortunato (XDS Astana). And what can Max Poole do for Picnic PostNL? Lastly, there’s Tao Geoghegan Hart (Lidl-Trek), a former Grand Tour winner, although he has been struggling for quite some time.
| Year | Winner |
|---|---|
| 2024 |  Primož Roglič |
| 2023 |  Sepp Kuss |
| 2022 |  Remco Evenepoel |
| 2021 | Primož Roglič |
| 2020 | Primož Roglič |
| 2019 | Primož Roglič |
| 2018 |  Simon Yates |
| 2017 | Christopher Froome |
| 2016 |  Nairo Quintana Rojas |
| 2015 |  Fabio Aru |
O'Connor with Roglic nearby - photo: Cor Vos
Vuelta a España| Rank | Rider | Time | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | - | 81:49:18 | |
| 2 | - | + 02:36 | |
| 3 | - | + 03:13 | |
| 4 | - | + 04:02 | |
| 5 | - | + 05:49 | |
| 6 | - | + 06:32 | |
| 7 | - | + 07:05 | |
| 8 | - | + 08:48 | |
| 9 | - | + 10:04 | |
| 10 | - | + 11:19 |
Top favorite Vingegaard - photo: Cor Vos
Is Almeida fully recovered from his crash? That’s the big question - photo: Cor Vos
With Ayuso, anything can happen - photo: Cor Vos
Carapaz came very close to overall victory in the Giro - photo: Cor Vos
Landa is a steady performer - photo: Cor Vos
Ciccone has never finished top 10 in a Grand Tour but is in top form - photo: Cor Vos
Gall is one of the climbers to watch in 2025 - photo: Cor Vos
Few wouldn’t wish Bernal success - photo: Cor Vos
Tiberi will appreciate the time trial kilometers - photo: Cor Vos
Kuss was the surprising overall winner of the Vuelta in 2023 - photo: Cor Vos
Can Gee shine once more? - photo: Cor Vos
