Mathieu van der Poel looks frighteningly strong, but he shouldn't get his hopes up

Fellow riders at Tirreno-Adriatico ran out of superlatives to describe Mathieu van der Poel’s form. According to Oliver Naesen, he even had to ease up on the climbs after an attack to avoid riding into Isaac Del Toro’s rear wheel. Johan Bruyneel, meanwhile, remarked that MVDP has never been better than he is now. But isn’t that a bit premature? And how do you maintain that form for a whole month leading up to Paris-Roubaix? No problem, says Karsten Kroon. Thomas Dekker has his doubts.

Having won Omloop Het Nieuwsblad and two stages in Tirreno-Adriatico, there’s obviously no reason to question his condition—so you’d think. Yet Dekker does. For this coming Saturday, it won’t be much of an issue for the 31-year-old Alpecin-Deceuninck leader, the North Holland native believes. “Van der Poel needs very little support to win Milan-San Remo. His ideal scenario is for UAE Emirates XRG to ride the Cipressa and Poggio climbs at full gas. Then he just has to latch on.”

The max
Still, Dekker has an instinct that Pogacar will win on Saturday. “Both are in top form. But I do feel Mathieu occasionally has to dig deep. It looks so effortless, and the gap sometimes seems huge. But he’s very honest. He’s just behind that crash in stage four, where he narrowly beat Giulio Pellizzari by half a bike. Mathieu said he had no surplus that day on that stretch, when he had to chase back after the crash. I think that happens more often with Van der Poel than we all realize.”

Dekker does not expect his level to rise much in the coming weeks. “This isn’t cyclocross in Niel, you know. It’s almost the maximum he can really produce. Just watch how he crosses the line and then immediately sits down. His advantage is that as an endurance athlete, he can push his lactate threshold a few points higher than anyone else. That’s Mathieu’s greatest strength. And he rides the bike more comfortably than anyone. It costs him literally zero energy. Mathieu sees things others don’t. He’s one with his bike. That also helps him maintain his form more easily.”

Impressive
Karsten Kroon, who provided co-commentary for Eurosport during Tirreno-Adriatico last week, closely analyzed Van der Poel. The Drenthe native could closely scrutinize him. “Everyone talks about the two stages he won. But the most impressive was what he did in that last stage. It was actually a non-event, a mandatory stage. Yet we witnessed a very strange race situation. Van der Poel tearing everyone apart on the climb halfway through the stage — even putting his own sprinter (Jasper Philipsen, ed.) unceremoniously overboard.”

Kroon didn’t understand it at first but later saw the masterstroke MVDP delivered. “What he was doing there was climbing the Cipressa in Milan-San Remo. As hard as he could. To rehearse it but especially to send a message to the competition, especially Pogacar: you’re not dropping me on the Cipressa. That psychological game started right there. I think Mathieu at this time of year is better than ever compared to the competition. How strong, we don’t know exactly, but he’s exceptionally good.”

His rivals have been warned, as Kroon believes Van der Poel can maintain this level through Paris-Roubaix. “By now, he must have enough self-awareness that he can pull it off. It’s a matter of maintaining. The hard work is done. It would be very ambitious for Mathieu to think he can sharpen his form even more. Plus, he’s already won races this year; he’s comfortable. He’s still under a lot of pressure, don’t get me wrong. Because now there’s a sort of idea emerging that Van der Poel can no longer lose.”

If that proves true on Saturday, expectations for the Tour of Flanders two weeks later will only rise. “But that’s not fair. That race is completely different. Also, last year I felt the gap between Van der Poel and Pogacar was quite big. Yes, Mathieu had been ill. But he really came up short compared to the Slovene. Flanders is so much harder than Milan-San Remo. Yet he also stands more chance there. That’s because – as I said earlier – Mathieu is in a better place than last year.”