The route for the 2026 Giro d’Italia was officially presented on Monday. It features a long individual time trial of forty kilometers, several sharp hilly stages, and—especially in the final week—a significant number of tough mountain stages. Who suits this profile best? Based on our Cyclingflash data, we list ten favorites for the top 10 and an outsider.
Next year could be a strange one for some GC contenders with dual agendas. This is all due to the World Championships in Canada on Sunday, September 27. Both WorldTour races (Québec and Montréal) serve as ideal preparation and allow enough time for acclimatization. A combination of the Tour de France, Vuelta a España, and the World Championships therefore doesn’t seem ideal. The same applies to the combo of the spring classics, Giro d’Italia, Tour, and Worlds.
No Pogačar, Evenepoel, and Roglič (?)
For that reason, participation in the Giro d’Italia doesn’t seem appealing to Tadej Pogačar. The Slovenian has already announced plans to race Milan-San Remo and Paris-Roubaix again. We can’t imagine that the UAE Emirates XRG leader would then skip the hilly classics just to do the Giro. The same goes for Remco Evenepoel, who was hoping for a second time trial in the final week. That will not happen, and furthermore, the time trial world champion seems to be looking forward to his debut in the Tour of Flanders. We leave him out as well. The same applies to defending champion Simon Yates, whom we expect to lead in the Vuelta.
Tom Pidcock (third in the most recent Vuelta), who normally targets a high overall classification in the Tour de France after the spring, is also not included. We also assume Matteo Jorgenson, Mattias Skjelmose, and Ben Healy will follow a similar path to Pidcock. With the World Championships on the other side of the world, there is a big opportunity for strong riders to win the Vuelta. For that, we note names like João Almeida, Florian Lipowitz, and Felix Gall (besides Tour participation and/or no Worlds ambitions). Moreover, our information suggests that Primož Roglič will ride a light program without Giro and Tour. With a final victory in the Vuelta, he would be the sole record holder.
With the extremely tough climbing route and a long time trial, the Giro seems tailored for Jonas Vingegaard. The Visma | Lease a Bike leader hinted in recent weeks that he is open to debuting in the Italian Grand Tour. It would also be a great challenge for him since he has never raced for a flattish victory during the spring classics. We also don’t expect a top result from him at the Worlds for the same reason. That’s why the Giro seems to attract one of the world’s top Grand Tour riders to start in Bulgaria. Will the Dane win the Giro after the Tour and the Vuelta?
After his missed opportunity last season, Isaac Del Toro still has a score to settle with the Giro. The 22-year-old Mexican talent had a fantastic season overall and seems to have all the qualities to win a Grand Tour. However, he will need to work on his time trial because, unlike the time trial at the Worlds (over the same distance), the Giro features hardly any altitude gain. On the other hand, the strongest riders can still gain minutes in the final week of the Giro. Del Toro also ’avoids’ the program of leader Pogačar this way.
Two years ago, Ben O’Connor was fourth in the Giro and second in the Vuelta, and also won silver at the tough World Championships in Zürich. Last season, with a focus on the Tour, he was quite disappointing despite winning the queen stage. Since a top result in France is unlikely for him given the competition, we wouldn’t be surprised if Jayco AlUla chooses—especially with UCI points in mind, which Brent Copeland notes is a focus in 2026—to send their best GC rider to the Italian Grand Tour.
INEOS Grenadiers don’t lack GC leaders, but with a good chance for final victory in the Vuelta, it seems likely that Carlos Rodríguez will try a different approach. He is not outstanding in one-day races, so a Worlds appearance might not be his priority. We expect Thymen Arensman and Kévin Vauquelin to head to the Tour, leaving Rodríguez—who has finished top 10 in four of his five Grand Tours—and Egan Bernal to lead at the Giro and Vuelta.
One of the most experienced Grand Tour riders on this list is Richard Carapaz. The 32-year-old Ecuadorian is still a gifted climber who doesn’t shy away from attacking. If he can minimize time loss in the time trial, there is much possible for the EF Education-EasyPost leader. The former Giro winner (2019) was third last year and knows by now that a top result in the Tour is probably out of reach with all the young competition. In big classics and World Championships, he has never really convinced—except for the 2021 Olympic Games.
In all the climbing action of UAE Emirates, you could almost forget that Brandon McNulty won three stage races (Poland, Luxembourg and Croatia) in the autumn and was also gifted the victory in the GP de Montréal by team leader Pogačar. Earlier in the season he also finished ninth in the Giro, which was admittedly the first top 10 of his career. With his time trial and climbing ability, he is a good candidate to achieve that again. Especially since he has no business in the spring classics and made the Tour selection for the last time in 2022.
Picnic PostNL is known for following its own plan and vision. Yet, they've been languishing near the bottom of the WorldTour rankings for several years. Last season, 23-year-old Oscar Onley showed he could finish fourth in the Tour de France. However, from a UCI points perspective, it could be interesting for the Dutch WorldTeam to push their limits in the Giro and Vuelta, as they likely offer a better chance of a high final ranking than the Tour. With Onley and Max Poole, they have a strong tandem that could make that happen, first in Italy.
Last season, Derek Gee-West completed a successful Italian campaign for Israel-Premier Tech. We can imagine that the ninth-place finisher in the 2024 Tour de France is now eager to get a taste of that in France, but at the same time, the 28-year-old Canadian champion doesn't seem to be the caliber to finish in the top five in the Tour de France. Last year, he proved he could with a fourth-place finish in the Giro. The only question is which team he'll be riding for. His predecessor, NSN Cycling, was his employer, but he terminated that contract. He is currently without a team.
Despite the wide range of top riders available for the Giro, Giulio Pellizzari deserves a chance and the confidence of Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe to make a bid for the Giro podium. The 22-year-old Italian made waves in 2025 with sixth-place finishes in both the Giro and the Vuelta, both after a strong performance in the final week. That's precisely the focus in the 2026 Giro. If he can limit the damage in the time trial, it shouldn't be surprising if he makes it to the podium. His teammate Jai Hindley can also make a significant contribution.
After Remco Evenepoel's departure, Ilan Van Wilder will get his long-awaited chance as a leader in the Grand Tours. The 25-year-old Belgian rider with Soudal-Quick-Step has never held that role at the start, but took it on in 2023 when Evenepoel was forced to withdraw midway through the Giro with a COVID infection. Van Wilder finished twelfth. But his strong time trial skills, his climbing ability, and the likelihood of not aiming for top results in hilly classics and the World Championships, convince us that he could well try his luck in the upcoming Giro d'Italia.
What's good comes quickly. It's a well-known cycling saying, and that certainly applies to Paul Seixas. Last year, the now 19-year-old Frenchman made the jump from the junior ranks to the pros. He did so with aplomb. Decathlon CMA CGM's plan is to prepare him to compete for the overall Tour de France title in 2028. If they handle Seixas carefully, they'll send him to the Giro d'Italia first (and only) this year to gain experience and avoid the French spotlight. We don't expect a top result immediately, but we wouldn't rule it out either.
