Tadej Pogacar is once again heading to the Tour de France this year as the absolute top favorite, but securing a fourth overall victory will certainly not be an easy feat. The Slovenian can expect significant resistance, especially from his arch-rival Jonas Vingegaard. And then there's the ever-dangerous Remco Evenepoel starting as well. Plenty of ingredients for a spectacular battle! Cyclingflash looks ahead.
The 2024 Tour de France started in Florence. With the help and blessing of a formidable Frank van den Broek, Romain Bardet took the first yellow jersey. A day later, the Frenchman lost the leader’s jersey to Tadej Pogacar, who after two days was still on the same time as Remco Evenepoel, Jonas Vingegaard, and Richard Carapaz. The latter took the yellow in stage three—not by gaining time but by finishing fourteenth. His total of stage defeats was thus less than those of Evenepoel, Vingegaard, and Pogacar respectively. Once again, a Dutch rider played a key role: Marijn van den Berg led out for the EF Education-EasyPost climber.
Carapaz didn’t enjoy his lead for long. On day four, the Tour already entered the mountains with a stage over the Col du Galibier. While the Ecuadorian faltered there, Pogacar delivered a double blow. The Slovenian would not relinquish the leader’s jersey afterward, but the tension didn’t disappear immediately. In the time trial to Gevrey-Chambertin, Evenepoel clawed back twelve seconds, and in the stage to Le Lioran, Pogacar appeared vulnerable. He attacked far before the finish but suffered a crash. Vingegaard returned and beat the UAE Emirates leader in a two-up sprint. The Tour was wide open!
After an impressive comeback, Vingegaard floored the previously escaped Pogacar in Le Lioran - photo: Cor Vos
For a moment... In the fourteenth stage to Pla d'Adet, Pogacar put things in order. He gained almost forty seconds on Vingegaard, extending his lead over the Dane to two minutes. A day later, in the stage to Plateau de Beille, came the final killing blow. Visma | Lease a Bike tried to wear down Pogacar by setting a hellish pace all stage, but Vingegaard hit a brick wall on the final climb. Pogacar rode up in record time, gaining more than a minute on Vingegaard once again and sealed the Tour.
The rest of the podium was already decided on Plateau de Beille, as proved later. Evenepoel still tried to dislodge Vingegaard from second place but failed. After a successful attack towards Superdévoluy, Evenepoel couldn’t shake the Dane on the way to Isola 2000. Subsequently, Vingegaard showed himself the definitive 'best of the rest' on the Col de la Couillole, the last uphill finish, and in the closing time trial to Nice.
Pogacar definitively sealed the Tour on Plateau de Beille - photo: Cor Vos
Anyone aiming to win the 2025 Tour de France must first and foremost be a strong climber. The Tour features five mountain stages with (challenging) summit finishes. Additionally, there is an 11-kilometer uphill time trial to Peyragudes. Early in the race, there is also a flat chrono where time trial specialists can build an advantage. But in this 33-kilometer contest around Caen, the Tour won’t be decided just yet.
That doesn’t mean the GC contenders can take the first week easy. On the contrary, they need to be sharp from the start. Although this year’s Tour includes no cobbled or gravel stages, the early part is nonetheless packed with deceptive stages. Think of the punchy stages in northern France and the tenth stage through the Massif Central. Here, the first blows will be struck and absorbed.
If after twenty stages, 44 kilometers of time trials, and numerous cols and hills the battle remains undecided, even the final stage to Paris offers opportunities to make a difference. The finale includes three ascents of Butte Montmartre (1.1 km at 5.9%). It would be something if the favorites attack each other on this cobbled climb.
There is one absolute top favorite for the upcoming Tour de France: Tadej Pogacar. The three-time Tour winner is having yet another impressive season. This spring, he won the UAE Tour, Strade Bianche, Tour of Flanders, La Flèche Wallonne, and Liège-Bastogne-Liège, while also podiuming in Milan-San Remo, Paris-Roubaix, and the Amstel Gold Race. After LBL, the Slovenian took a short break but resumed winning right away upon his June comeback. He emphatically claimed the Criterium du Dauphiné overall and three stages.
His second stage win, to Combloux, was particularly impressive. On the Côte de Domancy, Pogacar blew everyone off his wheel. The world champion dropped Jonas Vingegaard by more than a minute. The next day (to Valmeinier 1800), the final margin between the two rivals was smaller, but Pogacar already started dropping him in the closing kilometer. More than a true cooling down, this was probably some psychological warfare, combined with a bit of hidden leg pain. Nevertheless, there was no doubt he could have escaped Vingegaard further.
Pogacar dominated at the Critérium du Dauphiné - photo: Cor Vos
If the relative strength remains the same, Pogacar need not fear anyone in the mountains during the Tour—not even Vingegaard. He can also gain time on his rivals in the many punchy stages. But what about the time trial in Caen? Pogacar’s chrono at the Dauphiné was underwhelming. He finished only fourth, conceding 48 seconds to winner Remco Evenepoel and 21 seconds to Vingegaard over just 17.4 kilometers. Power-wise, there should be no issues; the loss seems related to his setup. It was clear he was uncomfortable on his time trial bike. How will he fix that in just a few weeks?
The competition may find hope in the mountains the Tour organizers included. There are summit finishes on Hautacam, Mont Ventoux, and Col de la Loze—all climbs where Pogacar has cracked in the past. But of course, that’s no guarantee it will happen again this time. The Pogacar of 2025 is not the Pogacar of 2021, 2022, or 2023. Last year he also dominated Vingegaard on longer climbs. It won’t be easy to break him down.
Last year’s final GC position:
Best Tour de France results: in 2020, 2021, and 2024
Best results leading up to the Tour de France:
UAE Tour overall
Strade Bianche
Milan-San Remo
Tour of Flanders
Paris-Roubaix
Amstel Gold Race
La Flèche Wallonne
Liège-Bastogne-Liège
Criterium du Dauphiné overall
Whether we get an exciting battle for the yellow depends largely on Jonas Vingegaard. If there's one rider who can put real pressure on Pogacar, it’s the leader of Visma | Lease a Bike. It was Vingegaard who shook off Pogacar on the aforementioned climbs—Hautacam, Mont Ventoux, Col de la Loze. In 2022 and 2023, this earned the Dane the Tour overall. In 2024, there was no hat-trick, but nobody expected that at the Grand Départ in Florence anyway. Vingegaard was returning after a terrible crash in the Tour of the Basque Country.
Vingegaard’s preparations this year weren’t flawless either. He crashed again—this time in Paris-Nice—and sustained a concussion. He only returned in the Criterium du Dauphiné, where he showed he hadn’t been idle over preceding months by performing well. Still, he couldn’t challenge Pogacar, which must have been disappointing, especially since he started the Dauphiné quite strong and may have looked more powerful than his eternal rival then.
Vingegaard was strong but not yet strong enough in the Dauphiné - photo: Cor Vos
Yet Vingegaard can still draw confidence from those opening days. In the opening stage he surprised with explosiveness, which will benefit him in the many rolling stages in the Tour. And in the time trial, he was 1.5 seconds per kilometer faster than Pogacar. Projecting this to the Tour, Vingegaard could theoretically gain about fifty seconds in the first 33-km time trial—a nice bonus. If he can then keep pace with Pogacar in punchy stages, he could— for the first time in their already five-edition rivalry—enter the mountains with a lead. And that's his true territory.
Of course, Vingegaard took a few big punches from Pogacar uphill at the Dauphiné. But the Dauphiné is not the Tour. Three weeks separate the races, enough time for form to fluctuate. Also, a mountain stage after five or six days is not the same as one in the third week. It’s precisely after accumulated fatigue that the tough Vingegaard shines. Although Pogacar’s so-called fatigue resistance is no longer a weakness either.
A relative weakness for Pogacar lies in team balance. While he enjoys excellent support in the mountains, his flat support is rather scanty. Only Nils Politt and Belgian champion Tim Wellens serve as rouleurs for UAE Emirates XRG. Vingegaard, meanwhile, benefits from teammates like Tiesj Benoot, Matteo Jorgenson, Victor Campenaerts, Edoardo Affini, and especially Wout van Aert.
Last year’s final GC position:
Best Tour de France results: in 2022 and 2023
Best results leading up to the Tour de France:
Volta ao Algarve overall
Criterium du Dauphiné overall
The third-place finisher in the 2024 Tour de France is also third in the favorites list for 2025. Remco Evenepoel made an excellent Tour debut last year but finished well behind Jonas Vingegaard and especially Tadej Pogacar. This year, he aimed to close that gap partly. However, in the Dauphiné—the final test before the Tour—it seemed the opposite happened. Uphill, he had to let both climbers go early. Also, a less prominent name (discussed below) finished ahead of Evenepoel in the standings.
But let’s not be too harsh on the leader of Soudal Quick-Step. We must not forget he had a very difficult winter, including a training accident followed by a long rehabilitation. It’s no surprise he couldn’t make the progress he wanted. Moreover, he performed better in this year’s Dauphiné than in 2024, when he finished seventh overall; this time, he was fourth. Back then, he made a big leap between the Dauphiné and the Tour. Why couldn’t that happen again?
Evenepoel will have to make his move in the time trial - photo: Cor Vos
His time trial in the Dauphiné was exceptional. Evenepoel crushed the competition. Vingegaard stayed close (losing 21 seconds), but Pogacar lost 48 seconds in just 17 kilometers. At the upcoming Tour, Evenepoel will aim to strike in the time trial on day five. It’s a good opportunity to take yellow and build a gap on Vingegaard and Pogacar.
The double Olympic champion will need it, as he will likely be damage-limiting in the mountains, often riding solo. Compared to UAE Emirates XRG and Visma | Lease a Bike, Soudal Quick-Step has a less strong climbing squad. Especially after losing Louis Vervaeke and, notably, Mikel Landa, mountain support is scarce. Evenepoel will hope Valentin Paret-Peintre and Ilan Van Wilder step up.
Last year’s final GC position:
Best Tour de France result: in 2024
Best results leading up to the Tour de France:
Brabantse Pijl
Amstel Gold Race
9th La Flèche Wallonne
5th Tour of Romandie
4th Criterium du Dauphiné overall
Belgian Time Trial Championship
Belgian Road Race Championship
We’ve seen how Tadej Pogacar, Jonas Vingegaard, and Remco Evenepoel are shaping up at the Critérium du Dauphiné, but what about Primoz Roglic? The form of the 35-year-old Slovenian as he lines up in Lille remains a big question mark. He rode the Giro d’Italia in May, starting strong but eventually abandoning on stage 16 after multiple crashes. He then went to Tignes for a high-altitude training camp. Was the Tour the main goal the whole time?
According to his coach Marc Lamberts, yes. "It’s the only race he hasn’t won yet," said the Belgian before the Giro to WielerFlits. "If you’ve already won the Vuelta four times and the Giro once, but not that one race, it’s a legitimate choice—while he can still ride—to focus on the Tour. Maybe even against better judgment. And I can understand that."
Roglic looked very relaxed in the Giro, as if there was little pressure - photo: Cor Vos
Winning the Tour won’t be easy for Roglic. He might gain some time on Pogacar and Vingegaard in the first time trial—after all, he narrowly lost the opening Giro time trial—but uphill he’ll likely have to follow these two. Especially on long climbs, he’s at a disadvantage. This Tour includes many summit finishes on such mountains. Also, Roglic tends to be involved in serious crashes more than average.
However, if Roglic stays upright, he’s always in contention for a top placing. Since 2019, he started thirteen grand tours, recording five DNFs but finishing on the podium in all eight other attempts. In other words, don’t underestimate him. Last year he won the Vuelta again (including three stages) and gave a masterclass to Juan Ayuso in the final stage of the Tour de Catalunya this spring. He’s definitely not done yet.
Last year’s final GC position: DNF stage 16
Best Tour de France result: 2020
Best results leading up to the Tour de France:
8th Volta ao Algarve overall
Tour of Catalonia overall
With Pogacar, UAE Emirates XRG not only won the Critérium du Dauphiné but also the overall in another major tune-up race, the Tour of Switzerland. João Almeida was nearly as dominant there as his team leader in the Dauphiné. The Tour started with a blow for Almeida, who lost three minutes in the chaotic opening stage. But a week and three victories later, the Portuguese rider stood on the podium as overall winner. Yes, the field in Switzerland was somewhat weaker, but it was still an impressive comeback.
In short: Almeida is ready for the Tour de France. Of course, he will start as Pogacar’s helper, so aiming for the overall win himself isn’t likely. But last year we saw that a supporting role doesn’t prevent him from riding high. He finished fourth in the GC. This year, the 26-year-old has taken another step. Besides the Tour of Switzerland, he already won the Tour of the Basque Country and the Tour of Romandie. He was 'only' sixth in Paris-Nice but still beat Jonas Vingegaard on La Loge des Gardes.
Almeida was by far the strongest in the Tour of Switzerland - photo: Cor Vos
Based on his 2025 results, it wouldn’t be surprising if Almeida is the best climber after Vingegaard and Pogacar in the upcoming Tour. For the neutral fan, it’s somewhat unfortunate that he rides for UAE Emirates XRG. At this team, the original pecking order isn’t always sacred, but when Pogacar is present, everyone obediently follows orders. There is one clear leader. The numerical advantage UAE often has is rarely exploited tactically.
Still, we shouldn’t entirely rule out this scenario or the possibility of Pogacar dropping out. In either case, Almeida will be ready to seize his chance.
Last year’s final GC position: 4th
Best Tour de France result: 4th in 2024
Best results leading up to the Tour de France:
Tour of Valencia overall
Volta ao Algarve overall
6th Paris-Nice overall
Tour of the Basque Country overall
Tour of Romandie overall
Tour of Switzerland overall
While UAE Emirates XRG goes all in on one man, Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe will probably bet on two horses. Roglic is the established rider, winner of five grand tours, but with Florian Lipowitz the team has another chance. The 24-year-old German was the surprise of the Critérium du Dauphiné. Pre-race, the podium places seemed set for Pogacar, Vingegaard, and Evenepoel, but the latter had to yield third to Lipowitz.
Lipowitz won the white jersey at the Dauphiné - photo: Cor Vos
Lipowitz gained time in the transition stage to Charantonnay but held his own in the time trial (5th) and mountain stages (3rd in Combloux and Valmeinier 1800). Even without being in the early break, he finished well ahead of Evenepoel in the GC. This performance was no fluke: earlier this year, he finished 2nd in Paris-Nice and 4th in the Tour of the Basque Country. He’s been in form all year.
Achieving a top GC placing at the Tour is a different matter, especially since this is Lipowitz’s Tour debut. With a seventh place in last year’s Vuelta a España, however, he has proven he can perform for three weeks. Then, he rode in service of Roglic, so with a freer role, more is possible. For the Tour, Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe having two strong riders to play is an interesting advantage.
Last year’s final GC position: Did not participate
Best Tour de France result: First participation
Best results leading up to the Tour de France:
Paris-Nice overall
4th Tour of the Basque Country overall
Criterium du Dauphiné overall
A strong Mas in the final stage of the Tour of the Basque Country - photo: Cor Vos
Enric Mas’s relationship with the Tour de France hasn’t been happy in recent years. In 2022, he withdrew after a positive COVID test; in 2023, he abandoned on day one after a heavy crash; and last year he finished only nineteenth. Still, the Spaniard has good memories of the Tour, having finished 5th (2020) and 6th (2021). Grand tours suit him well in general; he has been on the Vuelta a España podium four times.
Currently, Mas is quietly having another strong season. Wins remain tough for the 30-year-old Movistar climber, but he racks up top placings. Third in the Tour of Catalonia, second in the Tour of the Basque Country, seventh in the Criterium du Dauphiné. A week after the Dauphiné, he was third in the Andorra MoraBanc Clàssica, although more was expected from him there in that field. It sometimes seems his form corresponds with that of his rivals, causing him just to fall short—no matter who he races against.
Last year’s final GC position: 19th
Best Tour de France result: 5th in 2020
Best results leading up to the Tour de France:
Tour of Catalonia overall
Tour of the Basque Country overall
7th Criterium du Dauphiné overall
Andorra MoraBanc Clàssica
Much like UAE Emirates XRG, Visma | Lease a Bike has one clear leader this Tour de France, but the Dutch outfit often tends to play the team game. They could deploy Giro winner Simon Yates, but the Brit has just endured three hard weeks in Italy, making it unlikely he’ll contest another grand tour with the very best. For him, it will be crucial to perform on the days when Vingegaard most needs him.
Can Jorgenson benefit from the team tactics? - photo: Cor Vos
Therefore, Visma | Lease a Bike will probably want to keep Matteo Jorgenson high in the GC for as long as possible. The American won Paris-Nice in March for the second year running, recently finished sixth in the Dauphiné, and was eighth last year in the Tour. In January 2025, he announced he wanted to improve this year: "I want to show I’m still progressing in a grand tour, because it’s a future goal of mine — to ride the GC in a grand tour," he said at the team presentation.
He noted that Visma | Lease a Bike could use him as a ‘tactical card’ against Pogacar. "I think that’s a smart way to try to win the race. Jonas is clearly stronger than me, no doubt about that. But if I reach a level where he (Pogacar, ed.) has to chase me, it can give Jonas a tactical advantage. It’s useful for the team if I stay high in the GC."
Last year’s final GC position: 8th
Best Tour de France result: 8th in 2024
Best results leading up to the Tour de France:
Paris-Nice overall
9th E3 Saxo Classic
4th Dwars door Vlaanderen
6th Criterium du Dauphiné overall
Skjelmose beat Pogacar and Evenepoel in the Amstel Gold Race - photo: Cor Vos
One of the few riders who managed to beat Pogacar this year is Mattias Skjelmose. In the Amstel Gold Race, the Dane surprised friend and foe by winning a three-man sprint against Pogacar and Evenepoel. For the 24-year-old, it was the biggest victory of his career so far. A welcome win, as he crashed in both Paris-Nice (DNF) and the Tour of the Basque Country (but still finished fifth).
Three days after his Amstel win, Skjelmose crashed again in La Flèche Wallonne, ending his spring on a sour note. His share of bad luck wasn’t over yet. Preparing for the Tour de France, the Lidl-Trek leader was seriously ill. He missed the Critérium du Dauphiné and the Tour of Switzerland but made a comeback in the Andorra MoraBanc Clàssica—and won immediately. Though he had to dig deep, Skjelmose appears to be ready just in time for the Tour.
Hopefully, he’ll be sharp from the start. The early part of the race is suited to the GC leader of Lidl-Trek. He should thrive in the many punchy stages. He can be inconsistent in the high mountains but placed a fine fifth in last year’s Vuelta a España. He certainly has what it takes to ride a strong third week.
Last year’s final GC position: Did not participate
Best Tour de France result: 29th in 2023
Best results leading up to the Tour de France:
6th Faun-Ardèche Classic
Faun Drôme Classic
5th Tour of the Basque Country
Amstel Gold Race
Andorra MoraBanc Clàssica
The rock-solid Carlos Rodríguez - photo: Cor Vos
We save the last star for Carlos Rodríguez. The 24-year-old Spaniard can be hard to categorize: he has a quiet reputation, an anonymous follower, but his results say otherwise. In the 2023 Tour, for example, he won the mountain stage over the Joux Plane ahead of Pogacar and Vingegaard. On his palmarès are also a Spanish road title, two stages at the Tour of the Basque Country, a stage win at the Tour of Britain, and stage victories in the Criterium du Dauphiné and Tour of Romandie. Not bad for an 'invisible rider.'
It must be said that description fits Rodríguez reasonably well this year. The INEOS Grenadiers rider is not having his best season yet is not performing badly either. He literally dropped out of the UAE Tour, breaking his collarbone in a crash, which could explain the dip so far. In other stage races, he consistently finished in the top ten. In the Tour, the climber will try to minimize damage in the flat time trial—he usually finishes between 10th and 20th—to then produce a notable performance in the mountains.
Last year’s final GC position: 7th
Best Tour de France result: 5th in 2023
Best results leading up to the Tour de France:
6th Tour of Valencia overall
6th Tour of Romandie overall
9th Criterium du Dauphiné overall
We’ve now covered the main names, but as always, the Tour brings surprises. Riders who suddenly contest a top-ten, a top-five, or maybe even more.
Tobias Halland Johannessen could be such a rider. The 2021 Tour de l’Avenir winner may fulfill his promise this summer with a top-level performance. He was fifth in the Critérium du Dauphiné and showed excellent form. In the grueling mountain stage to Valmeinier 1800, the 25-year-old Norwegian from Uno-X Mobility finished ahead of Remco Evenepoel.
Santiago Buitrago also showed glimpses in the Dauphiné, albeit only in one stage. In the opening stage, he was in an elite group with Pogacar, Vingegaard, Evenepoel, and Mathieu van der Poel, but later in the race, illness forced him out before the eight-day race finished. It’s uncertain how fully recovered Buitrago is, but if his legs return, the Colombian is certainly one to watch. Earlier this spring, he even bested João Almeida in the Tour of Valencia.
Tobias Halland Johannessen - photo: Cor Vos
Leading up to the Tour, we also saw a strong Kévin Vauquelin. The Frenchman from Arkéa-B&B Hotels finished second in the Tour of Switzerland. Primarily a puncheur, he could well be placed well after the first week and pursue the GC. His countryman Lenny Martinez, who has already won mountain stages this year in Paris-Nice, the Tour of Romandie, and the Criterium du Dauphiné, is also expected to be a factor. The small climber should be active in the mountains, but can he contend for the overall?
The same question applies to Felix Gall. The Austrian from Decathlon AG2R can fly on certain days but is inconsistent and has some weaknesses, such as descending very poorly. Still, he was in good form in the Tour of Switzerland, much like Oscar Onley. The 22-year-old Picnic PostNL rider won one of the toughest mountain stages. In the Tour, Onley aims for stage victories but could also finish well overall if he keeps his June climbing form.
Ben O'Connor also contested the Tour of Switzerland and was briefly a top favorite for the overall but faded during the last weekend, ultimately finishing seventh. Considering his past performances—fourth in the Tour (2021), fourth in the Giro (2024), second in the Vuelta (2024)—he shouldn’t be dismissed for a strong GC.
Felix Gall - photo: Cor Vos
On that note, we have to mention the Yates brothers. After all, Simon Yates recently won the Giro d’Italia, and Adam Yates has once been on the Tour podium. Both will, however, serve supporting roles this Tour. Moreover, Simon has the Giro in his legs, and Adam isn’t having his best season. But don’t be surprised if one or both finish in the top ten after three weeks.
Finally, Dutch fans should note that Thymen Arensmans is not aiming for the GC. The INEOS Grenadiers rider will target stage wins in the Tour—his second grand tour of the year after the Giro d’Italia. The Belgians have Evenepoel for the GC but hope for a breakthrough by Lennert Van Eetvelt. His team Lotto doesn’t rule out a top-ten finish.
During the Tour de France, Cyclingflash provides daily previews of the 21 stages. In these previews, the race parcours is explained in more detail and, as you expect from us, ten favorites for the stage win are highlighted.
| Year | Winner |
|---|---|
| 2025 |  Tadej Pogačar |
| 2024 | Tadej Pogačar |
| 2023 |  Jonas Vingegaard |
| 2022 | Jonas Vingegaard |
| 2021 | Tadej Pogačar |
| 2020 | Tadej Pogačar |
| 2019 |  Egan Arley Bernal Gomez |
| 2018 |  Geraint Thomas |
| 2017 | Christopher Froome |
| 2016 | Christopher Froome |
Tour de France| Rank | Rider | Time | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | - | 83:38:56 | |
| 2 | - | + 06:17 | |
| 3 | - | + 09:18 | |
| 4 | - | + 19:03 | |
| 5 | - | + 20:06 | |
| 6 | - | + 24:07 | |
| 7 | - | + 25:04 | |
| 8 | - | + 26:34 | |
| 9 | - | + 27:21 | |
| 10 | - | + 29:03 |
