One word, five syllables, thirteen letters. Unforgettable. The word bizarre is often overused these days, but at the climax of the 2024 Tour de France Femmes avec Zwift, it was nothing less than justified. Will we see another thrilling scenario like this year? The sports world will be hoping so. The gloves can come off, as can the masks. Will we witness a second Tour victory from Niewiadoma or Vollering, or will a fourth new name in four years take the overall win?
Just like last year, it’s not hard to find an absolute top favorite. It will come as no surprise that Demi Vollering is once again the rider to beat. And we know that she can be beaten. Last year, mitigating circumstances certainly played a role—and despite a nasty injury, she was still the best climber—but even this season she has lost a stage race.
Vollering leaves little to chance. Along with her teammates and her husband, she’s been fine-tuning her form in the mountains over the past weeks. Normally, when it comes to powering up climbs, no one comes close to Vollering. And given the mountainous second half, this could be an especially exciting Tour for her. Three, maybe even four stage wins and the yellow bonus? It cannot be ruled out.
But is it all about the climbs? The best climber doesn’t automatically win a Grand Tour, as Sarah Gigante’s Giro showed. She was by far the strongest on the ascents and yet did not win the pink jersey. Road racing is so much more than just pedaling hard. Nine days may not require perfection, but it demands a lot nonetheless. Fortunately, Vollering can count on solid support from the FDJ-SUEZ squad on paper. Leading roles are likely reserved for riders like Juliette Labous (although mentally and physically the Giro was a bit disappointing, she could intrinsically be a podium contender) and Amber Kraak. They are riders you can rely on for any task.
Besides Vollering, there are, of course, others eager to make their mark on history. Marlen Reusser is the rider who beat Vollering at the Tour de Suisse. She then headed to the Giro as a top favorite, but illness dulled her edge just enough for Elisa Longo Borghini to win for the second consecutive year. How will that play out in the Tour? Reusser has at least proven to be one to watch. But is she fully recovered from the Giro?
Many dream of a Tour win, but few are granted it. Countless women give everything every day for that one goal, hoping it will one day be theirs. Katarzyna Niewiadoma is one of those fortunate few. That makes her privileged. Even if she never wins again, that Tour victory remains eternal. And let’s not pretend it was a fluke: Niewiadoma stood on the podium in the two previous editions as well.
Elisa Longo Borghini’s second consecutive Giro win surely gave Niewiadoma the confidence that defending her title in the Tour is possible. And confidence won’t necessarily be lacking either. Count on her to go all in again with her super-strong teammates. Controlling the race. Fighting for every second on the road. Taking advantage in descents and attacking wherever possible. Seizing every opportunity to cost rivals time. Fighting with all her might. And she’s worth a lot.
This is actually the approach ELB will need to take too. Her relationship with the Tour has been somewhat unfortunate the last few years. Skin infection in 2023 forced her to withdraw, a heavy crash right before the 2024 Tour prevented her from even starting. Her main focus was on the Giro—and rightly so—but there are also opportunities in the Tour. She may fall short against Vollering in the high mountains, but by racing offensively, podium ambitions are realistic.
Fenix-Deceuninck can certainly dream of a new podium after Pauliena Rooijakkers narrowly missed the Tour victory last year. With Rooijakkers, it’s possible, judging by her solid fourth place in the Giro (as in 2024). The first days could be tricky for her to avoid time losses though. Brittany can be chaotic. And with wind expected on flatter stages, it’s not immediately in her favor.
But the team has another strong weapon too. Puck Pieterse won a stage last year (and what a one) and took the white-purple young rider’s jersey. She was less successful in her first serious stage race. The big climbs proved a bit too much, but she showed she can definitely be a factor, needing only to work on the really long climbs. The rest will fall into place for the Amersfoort rider. With advice from Tour winner Annemiek van Vleuten in her pocket, during her second major stage race she may already be dreaming of the podium. Or even more?
From PP to PFP is a small step. The fact that the Tour is different from other races is proven again by the story of Pauline Ferrand-Prévot. This race motivated her to get back on the road bike. The dream? To win the Tour within three years, the first French woman to do so since Catherine Marsal. Ambitious goals, but you are Pauline Ferrand-Prévot or you are not. Is it realistic for this year? Not based on her results so far. Every climbing opportunity hasn’t quite panned out yet. And that is a necessary quality for winning this race.
But past results don’t guarantee the future, especially with PFP’s super talent. Things can turn around quickly. Despite the weaker performances, she won Paris-Roubaix, so her road comeback is already a success. She has also prepared at altitude in recent weeks—a simple necessity in modern women’s cycling, who would have thought that ten years ago?—and if we are to believe her, the preparation went well.
What it amounts to? She may not know yet herself. It’s all part of PFP’s road cycling discovery journey. So maybe we shouldn’t just focus on her huge name. Perhaps her teammate Marion Bunel? Or maybe a French rider on another team. Juliette Labous and Évita Muzic ride in support roles, but there’s also Cédrine Kerbaol.
She also rides under the shadow of the famous PFP, but more and more people are starting to notice her—especially after that wonderful stage victory a year ago in the Tour. She normally falls short on climbs compared to Vollering, but has certain qualities that can get her far in the GC. Not only does she climb solidly, but she’s one of the best descenders too. Does she gain extra motivation from the fact that stage two starts in her Brest? In any case, she’s aiming for the podium.
Kim Le Court also speaks French fluently, unsurprising given her background. Those who remembered her previous road attempt and thought it was unsuccessful soon changed their opinion. Because she showed right away upon her return that she is the real deal. She achieved a Giro stage win, victory in Liège-Bastogne-Liège, and has consistently raced with the world’s best riders. A remarkable story, thanks to Natascha Knaven-Den Ouden’s decision to give her a chance in late 2023.
And the story could get even better. A stage win is certainly possible, as is wearing the yellow jersey. The high mountains will pose a real test (like many riders, she’s still on a discovery journey), but unlike PFP, she has already proven this year that she can handle tough climbs well. Not to mention her AG Insurance-Soudal teammate Sarah Gigante.
She is a rider who has faced so many setbacks in her career: serious heart problems (myopericarditis), multiple fractures from terrible crashes, a long-lasting concussion, and recently a comeback after arguably the worst injury for cyclists—a narrowed iliac artery. Yes, Gigante knows the deep lows of cycling. Everyone would have understood if she had quit at some point. But despite everything, the fire still burns in the fan-favorite Gigante.
In the Giro d'Italia, the potential she’s been credited with for years was finally realized with two highly convincing stage wins in the mountain stages. Practical? Yes, Gigante is one of the world's best climbers, but she remains vulnerable in other aspects of racing. She’s working hard on those, but for now it’s a snapshot. If things ramp up at full gas on the climbs, staying with the best will be tough. The expected chaotic opening stages (especially stage two) could see others putting time on her. Various technical descents in the mountain stages may also not play to her advantage yet.
That’s all quite normal (Gigante is still a work in progress at only 24), but these are limitations for her Tour win chances—for now. Yet it could also work out well for her. No echelons, no chaos, no time loss when the climbs arrive? Watch out. The team’s tactic (Le Court as GC leader, Gigante as joker and possible winner of the mountain stage to Col de la Madeleine) is straightforward. Easier to follow than a top-form Gigante on uphill roads.
The SD Worx-Protime kingdom is eroding. Their time has passed. Tour victory? Forget it, especially without Vollering. You often hear such talk. The fact remains that, on paper, they are still one of the strongest teams globally. But indeed, they probably won’t be as dominant as before. The departure of several key riders has shifted the balance of power. As always, no team dominates forever. Not even SD Worx-Protime.
Lotte Kopecky has already shown she can compete for a Tour podium. But she has struggled somewhat throughout the year. Knee, lower back, uncertainties, the opinions circus... It takes its toll. Can she turn it all around in her main goal and be back to form by early August? Despite still being a top rider, the recent period has been just a bit off, much to the panic of the Belgian media.
Considering the fierce competition in the Tour and her difficult build-up, she technically falls just outside the star category. But that makes a possible breakthrough in the Tour all the more exciting. Coming from an underdog position—if that’s still possible for Kopecky—starting with maybe a stage win (already fantastic) and then trying to hold on as long as possible. Who knows where it will lead… Kopecky remains Kopecky. But even Kopecky is only human...
The potential of Anna van der Breggen is clear as well. When she retired, she was a legend, and she still is now that she’s restarting her active racing career. You could focus only on the results (most riders would sign blindly for a Vuelta stage win and podium), but what truly counts is that Van der Breggen is back in the mix. People count on her again, and that alone is a huge compliment.
"Hopefully this was the spark I needed with the Tour de France Femmes in mind," she said after a Giro that was also a bit disappointing. She finished sixth, but on climbing finishes, many riders left her behind. She needs to improve that in the Tour if she wants to compete for the overall victory. Was this the much-needed spark, or is the Tour general classification still just a bit out of reach?
There are many contenders for the top ten—much more than can eventually fit in it. Shirin van Anrooij, Riejanne Markus, or Niamh Fisher-Black? It’s possible. Niewiadoma’s teammate Neve Bradbury? If you can finish third in the Giro, you should be able to perform solidly in the Tour too. Monica Trinca Colonel or her Liv AlUla Jayco teammate Mavi García, the oldest rider in the Tour? Also have the qualities for the top ten. Katrine Aalerud from Uno-X? Quite strong, better not give up twenty minutes, but no direct threat otherwise.
Valentina Cavallar? The Arkéa-B&B Hotels rider has qualities, as she has shown, but the Austrian starts without GC expectations, especially because she has already struggled with illness this year. Let her target mountainous stages instead. That’s no bad idea... And perhaps that’s the recipe for success for Human Powered Health. We understand that Thalita de Jong—capable of much when in top form—is not at her best yet, but she’ll already be glad to be able to start at all. Barbara Malcotti? Don’t underestimate her; she rode a strong Giro, but a stage success in the Tour seems to be her maximum.
In major stage races, Vollering remains number one - photo: Cor Vos
New Tour win for Niewiadoma? - photo: Cor Vos
photo: Cor Vos
Can PFP flutter to victory in the Tour? - photo: Cor Vos
Thanks to Le Court, Mauritius can dream of a strong GC - photo: Cor Vos
SD Worx-Protime and the two question marks - photo: Cor Vos
