Tactical Misstep: How Visma | Lease a Bike's Alpine Strategy Failed to Isolate Pogačar

Even on the roof of this Tour de France, the ruler stood head and shoulders above the rest. Tadej Pogacar has clearly outgrown his last rival Jonas Vingegaard in the past two years. Even on the so-called weak points of the Slovenian, he is now better than the Dane. Whether it’s in the grueling third week, the climbs above 2000 meters, the fight against the time trials, or climbing in scorching heat—in all areas, Pogacar is the boss.

The words from his collapse two years ago still echo through the valley of Les Trois Vallées. “I’m gone. I’m dead." This statement marked Pogacar’s downfall on the memorable 19th of July 2023 on the Col de la Loze. Europe’s highest cycling route was now climbed from the other side. Slightly less tough, but still over 26 kilometers long with gradients up to 14%.

It was the memory of that weak day for ‘Pogi’ that kept hope alive at Visma | Lease a Bike. Vingegaard’s 4'15" deficit was large, but on this monstrous climb, anything was possible. This was the mindset of the Dutch WorldTeam heading into stage 18 of this Tour.

It was commendable how the yellow-black took the initiative on the Col du Glandon and later certainly on the Col de la Madeleine. Matteo Jorgenson was well positioned in the early breakaway as a satellite rider, and with the Belgian trio Wout Van Aert, Tiesj Benoot, and Victor Campenaerts, followed by the British-American duo Simon Yates and Sepp Kuss, UAE Emirates XRG was skillfully dismantled.

The hope that Visma–Lease a Bike had delivered decisive attritional work on these two Hors Catégorie Alpine giants somewhat evaporated when it became clear that Vingegaard really wasn’t gaining a meter on Pogacar. With 72 kilometers to go, Vingegaard bravely tried to attack five kilometers from the top of La Madeleine. However, there was too little venom in this acceleration, as Pogacar did not have to give up even one meter. Still, you can’t give up hope, and you have to stick to the original plan heading toward the dreadful Col de la Loze.

After the descent of the Madeleine, in the valley toward the final climb 40 kilometers from the finish, Jorgenson then made the mistake of breaking away with Ben O’Connor and Einer Rubio. As a result, Vingegaard, like Pogacar, found himself isolated in the second group, that also included Florian Lipowitz, Thymen Arensman, Primoz Roglic, and Felix Gall. The pace dropped in this group, causing a regrouping of a sixteen-rider group, which suddenly meant Pogacar was again surrounded by his teammates Jhonatan Narváez, Adam Yates, and Marc Soler on the D-road to Moûtiers.

Because of this merging of groups two and three, the yellow jersey regained control of the race, heading toward the final climb. All the work of the yellow-black wasps on the day’s first two climbs was nullified.

““It made no sense to ride through with Pogacar in the valley,” team director Grischa Niermann explained after the race. But then why sacrifice your whole team to isolate Pogacar on the second climb of the day? Why let Pogacar be surrounded by teammates just before the Col de la Loze, the mountain where, two years ago, he suffered that terrible collapse eight kilometers from the summit? Three years ago, Vingegaard managed on the Col du Granon to put the Slovenian behind in a man-to-man battle.

If Jorgenson had stayed in Vingegaard’s group and fully pushed the pace in the valley up to the foot of the Col de la Loze, the final climb of 26 kilometers would have been a man-to-man battle between the first and second in the GC.

Whether Vingegaard would have had a chance on that super-long and ultra-steep cycling route in a direct duel with Pogacar, will never be known. Given the ease with which the Slovenian stayed on the Dane’s wheel, the chance seems slim that the Visma–Lease a Bike leader could have actually gained time on the world champion here. But if Jorgenson had maneuvered his leader into that situation, the team would have at least tactically gotten the most out of its effort.

Of course, the winner is always right in hindsight. And the losing team’s tactics are never the right ones after the fact. The fact remains that Visma–Lease a Bike had their opponent UAE Emirates on the pain train on the Madeleine. It’s a shame they couldn’t exploit that situation better.