Win chance
| 1 | 1.48% | |
| 2 | 1.28% | |
| 3 | 1.19% | |
| 4 | 1.19% | |
| 5 | 1.03% | |
| 6 | 1.01% | |
| 7 | 0.99% | |
| 8 | 0.98% | |
| 9 | 0.96% | |
| 10 | 0.96% |
Model-based estimate from rider ratings and the stage profile.
| Date | Tuesday 12 March |
| Start |  Moulins |
| Finish | Belleville |
| Distance | 170.0 km |
Win chance
| 1 | 1.48% | |
| 2 | 1.28% | |
| 3 | 1.19% | |
| 4 | 1.19% | |
| 5 | 1.03% | |
| 6 | 1.01% | |
| 7 | 0.99% | |
| 8 | 0.98% | |
| 9 | 0.96% | |
| 10 | 0.96% |
Model-based estimate from rider ratings and the stage profile.