Win chance
| 1 | 17.39% | |
| 2 | 12.71% | |
| 3 | 12.69% | |
| 4 | 9.80% | |
| 5 | 5.35% | |
| 6 | 3.94% | |
| 7 | 3.22% | |
| 8 | 3.15% | |
| 9 | 2.87% | |
| 10 | 2.53% |
Model-based estimate from rider ratings and the stage profile.
| Date | Tuesday 10 March |
| Start |  Saint-Aignan |
| Finish | Saint-Amand-Montrond |
| Distance | 172.0 km |
Win chance
| 1 | 17.39% | |
| 2 | 12.71% | |
| 3 | 12.69% | |
| 4 | 9.80% | |
| 5 | 5.35% | |
| 6 | 3.94% | |
| 7 | 3.22% | |
| 8 | 3.15% | |
| 9 | 2.87% | |
| 10 | 2.53% |
Model-based estimate from rider ratings and the stage profile.