Do we finally see the dream duel between Van der Poel and Van Aert in Tirreno-Adriatico?

After a day for the sprinters, Thursday is back to the puncheurs. At least, that’s the expectation when looking at the route of the fourth stage. But is it also a day for Mathieu van der Poel and Wout van Aert again? WielerFlits looks ahead!

Route

The fourth stage of Tirreno-Adriatico goes through the Apennines, where climbing will start early with the Ovindoli and Valico delle Capanne climbs among others. The route is 210 kilometers long with 2500 meters of elevation gain.

This year’s route lacks a real mountain stage, but that doesn’t mean climbers won’t have their chances. On day four, there is plenty of climbing again. In the first hundred kilometers, there are even two longer climbs on the menu, with the Ovindoli (11.9 km at 4.9%) and the Valico delle Capannelle (12.9 km at 4.5%). However, the real sting is in the tail end.

After a longer descent and flat intermediate section, the finale will likely kick off on the flanks of the climb to Castellalto (7.6 km at 4.5%). And if this climb doesn’t decide it, we may see action on the slope to Mosciano Sant’Angelo (3.1 km at 3.8%), an uncategorized climb (2 kilometers at 5.3%), or the climb to Tortoreto (1.5 km at 8.4%). After this ascent, there is still a flat final 12 kilometers towards Martinsicuro.

Classifications

Favorites

The fourth stage is again tailored to puncheurs, but is it once more a stage for Mathieu van der Poel? The finale—with the tricky climb to Tortoreto—should suit the winner of the ‘gravel stage’ to San Gimignano. The question is whether he can survive the first two, longer climbs. Looking closer at these steep sections, the gradients aren’t too demanding.

In short, a strong Van der Poel should be able to survive this stage, but has he really set his sights on this one? Or is he saving energy with Milan-San Remo in mind? One rider surely going for the win is Wout van Aert. The Belgian has something to make up for. He was really targeting the stage win on Tuesday but was caught too far back when hitting the crucial gravel sector. You can bet he’ll be aiming for sporting revenge!

Looking at Tuesday’s explosive stage, we also have to keep an eye on Isaac Del Toro and Giulio Pellizzari. There is, however, an important difference. Where riders finished in San Gimignano after a tough climb, the finale this time is flat. This plays into the hands of the slightly faster puncheurs. That’s why we mark Andrea Vendrame as a strong contender for the stage win. The experienced Italian is in excellent form this season and showed top shape on Tuesday with a 5th place.

Also distinguishing himself in Tuesday’s unpaved finale was Julian Alaphilippe. The two-time world champion entered the gravel sector first but couldn’t follow Van der Poel’s decisive attack. Perhaps the French puncher will be able to hang on Thursday. And who knows if his compatriots Paul Lapeira, Tobias Halland Johannessen, and Andreas Kron can get involved as well.

Primoz Roglic (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe), Matteo Jorgenson (Visma | Lease a Bike), Santiago Buitrago (Bahrain Victorious), Ben Healy (EF-Education-EasyPost), Giulio Ciccone (Lidl-Trek), Roger Adrià, Javier Romo (Movistar), Filippo Ganna (INEOS Grenadiers), and Clément Champoussin (XDS Astana) should also not be underestimated.

Weather and TV

The riders can also expect some showers during the fourth stage. There might even be some thunder in the afternoon, and it will stay quite chilly. At the finish in Martinsicuro, temperatures will rise to about 15 degrees Celsius, but on the highest peaks, it will be around ten degrees colder.