Win chance
| 1 | 1.56% | |
| 2 | 1.27% | |
| 3 | 1.17% | |
| 4 | 1.13% | |
| 5 | 1.02% | |
| 6 | 1.01% | |
| 7 | 1.00% | |
| 8 | 0.94% | |
| 9 | 0.89% | |
| 10 | 0.88% |
Model-based estimate from rider ratings and the stage profile.
| Date | Wednesday 12 March |
| Start |  Fleurie |
| Finish | Saint-Étienne |
| Distance | 165.5 km |
Win chance
| 1 | 1.56% | |
| 2 | 1.27% | |
| 3 | 1.17% | |
| 4 | 1.13% | |
| 5 | 1.02% | |
| 6 | 1.01% | |
| 7 | 1.00% | |
| 8 | 0.94% | |
| 9 | 0.89% | |
| 10 | 0.88% |
Model-based estimate from rider ratings and the stage profile.