Tadej Pogacar has 'absolutely no chance' in Milan-San Remo
It’s not a question of if we will see a duel between Tadej Pogačar and Mathieu van der Poel in Milan-San Remo, but when. And actually, that’s quite predictable. If the world champion waits until the Poggio, he’s done for. The past few years have proven that. A tailwind from the top of the Cipressa would help the Slovenian in the saddle, but that seems unlikely. Thomas Dekker and Karsten Kroon share their insights with WielerFlits.
Look, if you had one shot
Or one opportunity
To seize everything you ever wanted in one moment
Would you capture it or just let it slip?
It’s the iconic intro of Eminem’s Lose Yourself that automatically starts playing in your head when you see Pogačar’s look-alike coup, and think about Milan-San Remo. For months, the UAE Emirates XRG leader has been obsessively preparing for La Primavera. Earlier this month, he even broke his personal best on the Cipressa during training. Pogačar is leaving nothing to chance in hopes of adding monument number four to his palmarès. He has emphatically answered Would you capture it? with ‘yes.’ But whether that will be enough against Van der Poel in top form…
Del Toro as a tactical masterstroke?
“First and foremost, these are two phenomenal riders, maybe never seen before,” says Dekker, whose analytical skills are always sharp. “Pogačar might be the most complete rider ever. Of course, there’s the sentiment from the past with Eddy Merckx, but that’s just talk. This guy is unique. I also think he’s going to win on Saturday. UAE Emirates XRG and Pogačar himself have so much power. They are all in peak condition. Pogačar has been targeting this for weeks. Strade Bianche was more of a training ride. He skipped Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico and is fully focused.”
According to Dekker, that keeps the Slovenian fresh mentally. “Van der Poel – whom I also don’t expect to lose much, and that’s what makes this race so beautiful and thrilling – had to be cautious this past week, which costs energy. That might make a tiny difference. These are micro-details we’re discussing now, but the average reader probably isn’t thinking about them. That’s why it’s very simple: UAE Emirates XRG must push as hard as possible from the foot of the Cipressa. They have the power, and they need to exploit it against Mathieu.”
Another tactical scenario might be to let Isaac Del Toro get away. “We humans are, of course, artists at fooling ourselves. But there will be zero doubt in the UAE Emirates XRG bus: all-in on Pogačar. There is a chance they will gamble on Del Toro. That vibe is definitely in the team now, I think. It didn’t work with Juan Ayuso, but apparently it does with Del Toro. I would believe in that too. It’s easy to talk when you can only buy power. Still, I think Pogačar really wants to win this one himself.”
Counterattack seems more realistic
According to Kroon, Pogačar benefits from the wind. “That’s everything here. With a headwind, I would say he would be completely hopeless. And that’s crazy, because Pogačar is currently the best rider. The absolute top level. But a tailwind is the condition for him to stand a chance. Because I don’t think Mathieu has ever been better in this period than he is now. UAE Emirates XRG will try, but a solo move on the Cipressa won’t happen, and later on the Poggio, it also won’t work to drop Mathieu.”
“On the contrary: I think Van der Poel will break away from Pogačar,” Kroon reveals. “Because UAE Emirates might try to play the Del Toro card, but that’s only an option on the Poggio. Then a strong Mathieu will always follow, he definitely won’t let him get away. Moreover, he showed in Tirreno-Adriatico that he dares to gamble. In both stages he won, he got others to do the dirty work and then struck. He can do that again now, because he’ll think: ‘I’ve already won this race twice.’ A very comfortable position to be in.”
However, the Eurosport commentator considers it a significant blow that Pogačar has to race Saturday without the injured Tim Wellens and Jhonatan Narváez. “That’s a huge difference. The only way Tadej could win Milan-San Remo now is by dropping Mathieu. But alone, Pogačar can’t do that. Van der Poel is too strong. Pogačar needs a very strong team. Wellens and Narváez are also excellent at positioning, while Del Toro rolled onto the Poggio in 50th place last year. If he does that again now, Pogačar won’t win.”
So the Slovenian knows what all the hard work of recent weeks and months has been for: one ultimate attack on the Cipressa, because in the last 23 kilometers – despite the forecasted headwind on Friday – they will push all the way to Via Roma in San Remo. And so the world champion will have to firmly keep this in mind: ‘You only get one shot, do not miss your chance to blow.’ Although, for the prolific Slovenian winner, there will likely be more chances in life than the once in a lifetime opportunity Eminem sings about. The first is Saturday.
