Win chance
| 1 | 7.47% | |
| 2 | 6.30% | |
| 3 | 6.21% | |
| 4 | 5.64% | |
| 5 | 3.04% | |
| 6 | 2.92% | |
| 7 | 2.67% | |
| 8 | 2.54% | |
| 9 | 2.02% | |
| 10 | 2.00% |
Model-based estimate from rider ratings and the stage profile.
| Date | Wednesday 10 March |
| Start |  Châlon-sur-Saône |
| Finish | Chiroubles |
| Distance | 188.0 km |
Win chance
| 1 | 7.47% | |
| 2 | 6.30% | |
| 3 | 6.21% | |
| 4 | 5.64% | |
| 5 | 3.04% | |
| 6 | 2.92% | |
| 7 | 2.67% | |
| 8 | 2.54% | |
| 9 | 2.02% | |
| 10 | 2.00% |
Model-based estimate from rider ratings and the stage profile.