Win chance
| 1 | 7.37% | |
| 2 | 7.12% | |
| 3 | 6.91% | |
| 4 | 6.74% | |
| 5 | 3.27% | |
| 6 | 2.91% | |
| 7 | 2.87% | |
| 8 | 2.75% | |
| 9 | 2.32% | |
| 10 | 2.12% |
Model-based estimate from rider ratings and the stage profile.
| Date | Saturday 13 March |
| Start |  Le Broc |
| Finish | Valdeblore La Colmiane |
| Distance | 119.5 km |
Win chance
| 1 | 7.37% | |
| 2 | 7.12% | |
| 3 | 6.91% | |
| 4 | 6.74% | |
| 5 | 3.27% | |
| 6 | 2.91% | |
| 7 | 2.87% | |
| 8 | 2.75% | |
| 9 | 2.32% | |
| 10 | 2.12% |
Model-based estimate from rider ratings and the stage profile.